Avi Gilburt launched ElliottWaveTrader (www.elliottwavetrader.net) in September 2011 to provide Elliott Wave analysis for traders looking for market directional guidance. Covered markets and indices include the emini S&P 500, gold (GLD), silver (SLV), oil (USO), the Volatility Index (VIX) and U.S. dollar (USD). ElliottWaveTrader also features member-driven analysis and trade alerts on individual stocks. Gilburt is a lawyer and accountant by training who emphasizes using "measurement over emotion" in reading Elliott Wave counts and analyzing charts. He is a frequent contributor to Seeking Alpha, MarketWatch, TheStreet.com, DecisionPoint, and The Technical Trader with Harry Boxer, who calls Gilburt "the best Elliott Wave analyst I've seen!"
Awaiting Next USO Rally June 2, 2013
Oftentimes, we can see a pattern develop which does not necessarily invalidate, but creates the wrong “look.” In this case, as we're seeing in the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO), while a 3rd wave higher has clearly not yet invalidated by retracing below the start of wave i, we clearly have the wrong “look” for what the start of a 3rd wave. Rather, I think we are seeing a larger b-wave consolidation.
Silver & Gold Setting Up for Rally? May 13, 2013
With the decline we saw in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) this past week, there are two ways we can now look at the metals. Either the decline is part of a larger b-wave of wave iv, which seems to be the way we can count silver, or it is the start of wave v of 3, which seems to be the way we can count gold.
Silver & Gold: Easy Money On The Short Side Is Done For Now March 12, 2013
In what almost felt like a deja vu moment relative to last week, I sent out a Wave Alert just before the metals snapped back off their lows, warning those that were short going into the lows on Friday to watch for an imminent reversal. In fact, this action in silver is telling me that I need to reiterate my warnings of the prior week that shorting silver is becoming a very, very dangerous game, and probably one in which most should not be engaging at this time.
One More Short Trade Left in Silver & Gold? January 14, 2013
This past week saw the decline we expected in both metals. However, they came up short of our ideal targets for a bottom. This tells me, among other reasons, that we do not yet have a bottom in place. Of course, if I am wrong, we will see silver take out the 31.50 level on strong volume, and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) will take out the 164.15 level on strong volume.
Silver & Gold: Can We Be Uber-Bullish? December 3, 2012
The metals have now given us more twists and turns than an alpine highway. While our longer term perspective of expecting a parabolic 5th wave higher has not changed, we are still left with questions regarding from where the next larger rally phase will begin. So, let me try and explain. Last week, we still had the potential for this move up being only a b-wave high, with an expected c-wave drop to complete a triangle pattern.
Silver & Gold: Triangle Is Starting To Look Really Good November 12, 2012
Since the market began this rise from the summer-time lows, I have stated repeatedly that the pattern did not provide a clear 5 wave move off the lows to begin the rally. This has made me very suspicious of this rally even though almost everyone else was seeing this as the start of the expected parabolic 5th wave rally.
Precious Metals Correction Almost Complete? October 22, 2012
Currently, the metals seems to have completed, or may even have a very small decline still left in order to complete wave iii of a c-wave in what would be best counted as a wave 2. This means that the likely expectation would be for a wave iv corrective rally to be seen early this coming week. Such a corrective rally should maintain below the prior resistance of 170 in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and 33.50 in the silver futures. This should likely lead to one more decline which will likely target the .
Cautiously Optimistic on Gold & Silver October 8, 2012
Traditionally, when the metals are in a very bullish posture, the corrections are relatively shallow, rarely exceeding a .382 retracement of the prior wave. At this time, I am starting to lean more heavily towards the count that the top of wave 1 of the final wave (5) has been completed, and we are now in a wave 2.
Gold & Silver: One More Push Likely Before Next Downdraft September 24, 2012
With the last week or so providing only what seems to be a consolidation for the metals, there really is not a lot for me to add to our prior analysis. Ultimately, the nature of the larger pattern will rely upon the manner in which the next correction moves. However, there is one additional note that I would like to add for the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). At this point in time, GLD is very close to its February high.
Gold & Silver: Will The Rally Continue Straight To New Highs? September 10, 2012
With both gold and silver and their respective ETFs -- the SPRD Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) -- just exceeding the targets we set for them this past week, it still has us questioning if the 5th wave rally has begun. But, my concerns mentioned last week have not changed just because the market has moved higher. Yet, it must make me consider whether this is a wave 1 of the final 5th wave rally.
Gold & Silver: Breakout We've Been Looking For? September 5, 2012
The metals’ pattern has now become infinitely more complicated with the recent move up this past week on larger buying volume. While my primary count still does not give me a clear structure that tells me that this is THE rally for which we have been waiting to take us to new highs, I have to remain open to the possibility. But, remember, the targets for gold should take us well over $2,100 to as high as $2,400 for the top of the 5th wave rally, while silver should easily exceed $60.
Looking to Short Higher Levels in Precious Metals August 21, 2012
I have been saying in our Trading Room for the last few weeks that once we see the metals begin their last ascent into our target region, we will likely be making a top in all asset markets. In fact, after much consolidation over the last two weeks, the metals seem to have come to life, which probably means that all markets are now nearing a top of significance.
Complex Patterns for Gold & Silver July 30, 2012
When we look at the smaller time frames, and even the 144 minute chart, it was clear that this was not a standard impulsive count to the downside for even a stock, and even more so for the metals, which tend to have exacerbated downside moves, especially during 3rd waves down. But, the move down was more in the way of a steady decline than a strong move down. This is what has almost forced me to count the downside action over the last few months as only corrective.
GOLD & SILVER July 24, 2012
Well, it seems as gold and silver have carved out another bullish possibility of late. However, over the last 4 months, we have seen many bullish possibilities, all of which ended with invalidation of the bullish pattern. Will this one be the same? Starting with Gold, the GLD has never broken down below its December 2011 low as silver has. Furthermore, it has been coiling in this potential bullish pattern for over a month now. So, it seems it is a do-or-die time for this metal.