Avi Gilburt launched ElliottWaveTrader (www.elliottwavetrader.net) in September 2011 to provide Elliott Wave analysis for traders looking for market directional guidance. Covered markets and indices include the emini S&P 500, gold (GLD), silver (SLV), oil (USO), the Volatility Index (VIX) and U.S. dollar (USD). ElliottWaveTrader also features member-driven analysis and trade alerts on individual stocks. Gilburt is a lawyer and accountant by training who emphasizes using "measurement over emotion" in reading Elliott Wave counts and analyzing charts. He is a frequent contributor to Seeking Alpha, MarketWatch, TheStreet.com, DecisionPoint, and The Technical Trader with Harry Boxer, who calls Gilburt "the best Elliott Wave analyst I've seen!"
Interrelationships of Dollar, Metals & ES July 27, 2014
With the way different markets have been moving together and others seemingly inverse each other of late, I wanted to take the time to write a “linear” perspective of what I think we can see if such linear relationships continue, which is also supported by the various patterns I am seeing. But, remember, I am attempting to apply some recent linear perspectives to a non-linear market, which sometimes winds up in “defraculation,” as el Hombre likes to put it.
Last week, I began to lay the ground work in explaining that the short side to the market is probably going to get more complicated, as the easy money on the short side has been made from the market top we identified at 133 down to our last target of 119 in GLD. But, no matter what happens over the next month or two, I want to make one thing clear.
Have We Begun The Larger Correction? March 13, 2014
With the drop Wednesday morning below 1860ES, we were able to find support at the midline level Fib level I discussed in the Weekend Update at 1853ES. While I ideally wanted to see us heading down to the 1845ES region, the 1.618 extension down, to develop an impulsive wave off the highs, it is clear that this is not going to be the case, and the market is going to make this much harder for us in not providing a clear 5 wave structure off the high.
Much Lower Levels Have Become Likely in USO January 12, 2014
Two weeks ago, we knew we had a high probability top in place in the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO). Our question only centered around whether it was a (b) wave top or an impulsive 5th wave top. With the break down this past week, the market resoundingly told us that no impulsive structure to the upside was going to be tolerated.
USO Almost at the Bottom November 10, 2013
As we have been expecting lower levels to be struck in the US Oil Fund ETF (USO), it does not seem reasonable to expect more than one more decline at this, at least based upon the extended count and the MACD set up. While one may consider that the last low was the bottom for this drop, when I look a bit more closely at the 13 minute chart for the USO, it would seem like the market is setting up for one more 5 wave decline which lines up very nicely with our next lower target in the 33.15-33.20 region.
Still No Bottoming Signal for USO November 3, 2013
While many were trying to go long oil a week ago, I tried warning that the technicals and the pattern were not providing us with a bottom being in place, and to await another decline to present us with a tradable low. In fact, the market turned down exactly at the first resistance level I kept noting at 35.60. Furthermore, last week I provided an initial target where a potential bottom may occur in the 34.20-34.
Tradable Low in Oil Should Be Upon Us October 28, 2013
Last weekend, I harped on the fact that the USO chart was quite unclear, and “while our 36.20 support region has still basically been holding, it is quite possible that it may break this upcoming week.” However, with the continued downside we saw this past week, the USO chart has provided a bit more clarity. In assuming that the shallow retracement back up which we saw last week was a b-wave, the drop we witnessed this past week seems to be a c-wave.
USO: Has The b-wave Completed? October 20, 2013
I have always discouraged traders from forcing a trade on a chart that does not provide a clear pattern. And, right now, there is no smaller time frame clarity in the US Oil Fund ETF (USO) chart. It is not a chart to which I would be allocating any trading money at this time, no matter what it does from this point forth. Or, not at least until I see a clear pattern I can comfortably trade. While our 36.
USO: I Still Want To See A Clearer B-wave High October 13, 2013
This past week, we saw the US Oil Fund ETF (USO) come even closer to our 36.20 support level with a low of 36.40, as opposed to last week’s 36.40 low. It is clear to me that if that level does break, we will likely see much lower levels in a larger a-wave of this large degree retracement in USO. So, while it is “possible” that the b-wave completed at last week’s high, I still think we may see another attempt to push towards the 38.30-39 region before a solid b-wave is in place.
Do We Ever Learn From The Past? October 6, 2013
Human nature often allows us to ignore the past rather than allow us to learn lessons from the past. We always think that “this time is different.” In fact, there is tremendous capacity within the human mind to not allow individuals, and especially the public at large, to be burdened by the lessons of history, and believe that we are in a new era in which the old rules no longer apply. We clearly saw this during the times of the Great Depression.
USO Bottoming? September 29, 2013
In my humble opinion, the best way to count this drop thus far is a larger degree a-wave of either a wave 2 pullback, or a deeper e-wave in a larger degree b-wave triangle. Based upon the technicals, we will likely see a bottom soon and it would not shock me to see the 36.20 Fib level hold on this decline. However, I still only believe that this is just the start of the decline.
Has USO Begun the Decline? September 23, 2013
The drop from the recent highs has looked quite overlapping thus far, which still leaves the door open to another rally in USO before it tops. However, we can also view the drop as a leading diagonal off the top, or even being an a-b c-structure off the highs. What all this means is that there is no clarity in the drop off the highs.
USO About to Drop? September 16, 2013
The USO broke down a bit more this past week, but then pushed its way back into the uptrend channel. So, while I cannot be certain that we will see another high being made in the USO, I think the probabilities are still pointing to much lower levels yet to be seen, even if one more high is seen.
Awaiting Next USO Rally June 2, 2013
Oftentimes, we can see a pattern develop which does not necessarily invalidate, but creates the wrong “look.” In this case, as we're seeing in the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO), while a 3rd wave higher has clearly not yet invalidated by retracing below the start of wave i, we clearly have the wrong “look” for what the start of a 3rd wave. Rather, I think we are seeing a larger b-wave consolidation.
Silver & Gold Setting Up for Rally? May 13, 2013
With the decline we saw in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) this past week, there are two ways we can now look at the metals. Either the decline is part of a larger b-wave of wave iv, which seems to be the way we can count silver, or it is the start of wave v of 3, which seems to be the way we can count gold.
Silver & Gold: Easy Money On The Short Side Is Done For Now March 12, 2013
In what almost felt like a deja vu moment relative to last week, I sent out a Wave Alert just before the metals snapped back off their lows, warning those that were short going into the lows on Friday to watch for an imminent reversal. In fact, this action in silver is telling me that I need to reiterate my warnings of the prior week that shorting silver is becoming a very, very dangerous game, and probably one in which most should not be engaging at this time.
One More Short Trade Left in Silver & Gold? January 14, 2013
This past week saw the decline we expected in both metals. However, they came up short of our ideal targets for a bottom. This tells me, among other reasons, that we do not yet have a bottom in place. Of course, if I am wrong, we will see silver take out the 31.50 level on strong volume, and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) will take out the 164.15 level on strong volume.
Silver & Gold: Can We Be Uber-Bullish? December 3, 2012
The metals have now given us more twists and turns than an alpine highway. While our longer term perspective of expecting a parabolic 5th wave higher has not changed, we are still left with questions regarding from where the next larger rally phase will begin. So, let me try and explain. Last week, we still had the potential for this move up being only a b-wave high, with an expected c-wave drop to complete a triangle pattern.
Silver & Gold: Triangle Is Starting To Look Really Good November 12, 2012
Since the market began this rise from the summer-time lows, I have stated repeatedly that the pattern did not provide a clear 5 wave move off the lows to begin the rally. This has made me very suspicious of this rally even though almost everyone else was seeing this as the start of the expected parabolic 5th wave rally.
Precious Metals Correction Almost Complete? October 22, 2012
Currently, the metals seems to have completed, or may even have a very small decline still left in order to complete wave iii of a c-wave in what would be best counted as a wave 2. This means that the likely expectation would be for a wave iv corrective rally to be seen early this coming week. Such a corrective rally should maintain below the prior resistance of 170 in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and 33.50 in the silver futures. This should likely lead to one more decline which will likely target the .
Cautiously Optimistic on Gold & Silver October 8, 2012
Traditionally, when the metals are in a very bullish posture, the corrections are relatively shallow, rarely exceeding a .382 retracement of the prior wave. At this time, I am starting to lean more heavily towards the count that the top of wave 1 of the final wave (5) has been completed, and we are now in a wave 2.
Gold & Silver: One More Push Likely Before Next Downdraft September 24, 2012
With the last week or so providing only what seems to be a consolidation for the metals, there really is not a lot for me to add to our prior analysis. Ultimately, the nature of the larger pattern will rely upon the manner in which the next correction moves. However, there is one additional note that I would like to add for the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). At this point in time, GLD is very close to its February high.
Gold & Silver: Will The Rally Continue Straight To New Highs? September 10, 2012
With both gold and silver and their respective ETFs -- the SPRD Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) -- just exceeding the targets we set for them this past week, it still has us questioning if the 5th wave rally has begun. But, my concerns mentioned last week have not changed just because the market has moved higher. Yet, it must make me consider whether this is a wave 1 of the final 5th wave rally.
Gold & Silver: Breakout We've Been Looking For? September 5, 2012
The metals’ pattern has now become infinitely more complicated with the recent move up this past week on larger buying volume. While my primary count still does not give me a clear structure that tells me that this is THE rally for which we have been waiting to take us to new highs, I have to remain open to the possibility. But, remember, the targets for gold should take us well over $2,100 to as high as $2,400 for the top of the 5th wave rally, while silver should easily exceed $60.
Looking to Short Higher Levels in Precious Metals August 21, 2012
I have been saying in our Trading Room for the last few weeks that once we see the metals begin their last ascent into our target region, we will likely be making a top in all asset markets. In fact, after much consolidation over the last two weeks, the metals seem to have come to life, which probably means that all markets are now nearing a top of significance.
Complex Patterns for Gold & Silver July 30, 2012
When we look at the smaller time frames, and even the 144 minute chart, it was clear that this was not a standard impulsive count to the downside for even a stock, and even more so for the metals, which tend to have exacerbated downside moves, especially during 3rd waves down. But, the move down was more in the way of a steady decline than a strong move down. This is what has almost forced me to count the downside action over the last few months as only corrective.
GOLD & SILVER July 24, 2012
Well, it seems as gold and silver have carved out another bullish possibility of late. However, over the last 4 months, we have seen many bullish possibilities, all of which ended with invalidation of the bullish pattern. Will this one be the same? Starting with Gold, the GLD has never broken down below its December 2011 low as silver has. Furthermore, it has been coiling in this potential bullish pattern for over a month now. So, it seems it is a do-or-die time for this metal.