Mid-Day Minute
Mid-Day Minute, published mid-session daily, features technical strategist Mike Paulenoff's annotated chart analysis of a key market and its ETF or bellwether stock in play.
New Upleg for TLT
This morning's surge in the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (NYSE: TLT) reflects greater-than-expected economic deceleration from Q2 to the revised (higher) Q1, as well as disappointing figures for personal consumption, which has triggered a fierce bout of short-covering.
SRS Tests Resistance
With the equity market under pressure, the UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS) is rallying off of its three-day support plateau at 22.75, which has propelled the ETF above near-term resistance at 23.80, towards a possible confrontation with its July down trendline, now at 25.15. Moving over to the emini S&P 500, my 4-hour chart work continues to warn me not to trust the intraday recovery rally from 1088.75 to 1100.
Eyeing the 200-Day in Gold
In our Webinar last night, we discussed gold and the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), which has been a liquidating market. The GLD closed at 113.50 off a low of 113.21, and the 200-day moving average is 112.06. The relative strength indicator points straight down, which leads me to believe the GLD will test the average and I want to stay in for that test to see if it gets some sort of reversal from there.
Trap-Like Pattern in VIX
We have to be impressed with the market's resiliency today after hitting new recovery highs, because weakness thereafter has been very much contained, at least so far. That said, however, I am "concerned" about the "trap-like" pattern that has developed in the hourly Volality Index (VIX). Let's notice that the VIX made multi-month lows this morning at 22.70, but has since climbed back above 23.20, which so far has "trapped" VIX bears (SPX bulls).
Shanghai Extends July Rally
The Shanghai Composite Index closed higher for the seventh consecutive session, and more importantly from a technical perspective closed above its (now flat) 50 DMA for the first time since mid-April. The strength extends the July rally, which could be morphing into a technically significant key monthly upside reversal. If the SH Comp hurdles and remains above the June high at 2598.
