Nightly Report
Nightly technical market analysis by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson featuring the day's technical summary and a look ahead at the next session.
Bears Remain Frustrated
Overnight futures were about as flat as a pancake; the pre-market this morning traded in one of the tightest ranges I have ever seen. So the regular session opened flat but proceeded to stair-step higher for 90 minutes painting the high at 11:06. The indices then found resistance and leveled off before giving back all the gains and setting the low of the day at 12:31. But the indices are anything if not resilient and quickly the SPX bounced back to near the high of the day.
Bulls Appear Tired; Bears Are Exhausted
Overnight Fitch came out with comments suggesting that the UK still has some work to do on their fiscal situation. They also questioned the veracity of the global economic rebound. The NFIB Small Business Optimism index for February was reported at 88.0, which was below the consensus reading of 90.0 and January's reading of 89.3. This resulted in some pressure on the futures and the regular session opened with selling pressure from the futures.
Bullish Monday Becomes Tight Range Monday
The week began with Asia green, most likely a reaction to our positive Friday, and with Europe flat. Our futures overnight were flat and the pre-market traded within an unusually tight range, suggesting that we’d have a flat regular session as well. The SPX opened with a small pop upward setting the high of the session at 9:41, proceeded to chop lazily sideways and set the low of the day at 11:34. The rest of the session was a tight range five wave up then down pattern.
One Year Anniversary of the Rally
As we pass the one year anniversary of the rally beginning, let’s look at volume and range patterns and see if the market is telling us anything. First week of March 2009: Average per day volume: 7,592,844,000, Weekly range: 8.61% Daily range: 27.48 points First week of March 2010: Average per day volume: 4,002,330,000, Weekly range: 3.08% Daily range: 9.34 points Weeks compared: Average per day volume: 52.7% of 2009 Weekly range: 35.
Euphoria from "Less Bad" Employment Data
A net loss of “only” 36,000 jobs in February created market euphoria before the open and the market responded with a large gap up followed by spiking even higher for the opening hour. The next four hours of the session traded within a two point range, sideways chop. But shortly before 3pm, the index surged upward several more points before trading choppily into the weekly close. This closed out a bullish week, the best weekly gain for the SPX since the week of October 5th.
