A Narrow Mixed Session
by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson
There was no economic data released before the open. Bloomberg was reporting that China would announce additional stimulus measures this summer and Germany had said it will make a statement on Greece. With the exception of Australia and Shanghai, the major overseas markets were higher across the board. Futures pointed to a slightly higher open.
The SPX opened with a slight push upward and did a rare thing: Set the high of the in the morning at 11:14. The entire day up until 3pm traded in a very tight five point range. The range expanded during the closing hour and did something else unusual: The range expanded to the downside. Not by a lot, but on days such as thing, even a three point move looks larger. The index finished by closing in the bottom 10% of the daily range.
The action of the internals during the session today was a bit bewildering to watch. Most of the day the average of the internals hovered around the breakeven mark - but there was wide disparities among the indicators. All this while seven sectors were outperforming the SPX. The real drag on the index today was the Financials; obviously traders were concerned about what our friends in Congress have planned. If the perception tomorrow is positive, I suspect the index will fly. We will likely have a good idea tonight by watching the futures.
SPX Summary for Monday, April 26, 2010
183 Advancers/308 Decliners
Today's SPX component winners and losers:
• Largest one day loser is DV with -5.77%
• Largest three day loser is BAX with -19.27%
• Largest five day loser is BAX with -19.79%
• Largest ten day loser is BAX with -18.16%
• Largest one day winner is EK with 11.39%
• Largest three day winner is EK with 18.83%
• Largest five day winner is HBAN with 24.95%
• Largest ten day winner is SNDK with 20.03%
*** SPX Technical Summary ***
The lowest 14 day RSI component is AKS; the highest 14 day RSI component is BDK. The average 14 day RSI of all 500 components is 59.
The greatest positive five day momentum component is HBAN; the greatest negative five day momentum component is BAX. The average five day momentum of all 500 components is 2.71.
64.60% of the SPX components are giving a crossover Buy signal; 13.20% of the SPX components are giving a Sell signal. This is a 4.9 to 1 ratio of Buy signals over Sell signals.
SPX component signal changes today (evidence of trend):
• From Sell to Neutral: 13 components.
• From Buy to Neutral: 11 components.
• From Neutral to Sell: 12 components.
• From Neutral to Buy: 24 components.
The moving averages:
Close 1212.05
9 EMA 1217.51 Rising
5 DMA 1210.22 Rising
10 DMA 1206.04 Rising
20 DMA 1194.55 Rising
50 DMA 1157.47 Rising
100 DMA 1133.43 Rising
200 DMA 1084.77 Rising
10 Wk MA 1171.35 Rising
NYSE Summary
On the NYSE 3218 issues were traded with 1446 advancing issues and 1658 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.15 to 1 declining. There were 674 new highs and 9 new lows.
Declining volume was higher at a ratio of 1.60 to 1. The closing TRIN was 1.39 and the final tick was 458.
Evidence of trend:
Relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was 9.87% above the average. Of the last 15 sessions 11 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 24 sessions ended on a positive tick, 8 of last 10.
The 5 day moving average of New Highs is 412 while the 5 day moving average of new lows is 9 and the 10 day moving average of Net Advancing is 383. The Net Advancing data indicates a bullish trend.
Remember: Breadth leads, indices follow. Today, the NYSE Advance/Decline line decreased from 212204 to 211992. This -0.10% decrease came while the SPX was losing -0.43%. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume is 0.99 and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio is 1.28. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume has trended -0.1 over the last three days and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio has trended -0.04 over the last three days.
The NYSE Composite Index lost -0.31% today.
NYSE Statistics:
Absolute Breadth Index: 33.83 up from previous day of 32.74
Cumulative Volume Index: 81,910.00 down from previous day of 83,552.85
High Low Logic Index: 0.81 up from previous day of 0.74
McClellan Oscillator: 39.25 down from previous day of 82.51
McClellan 10 DMA: 13.08 down from previous day of 14.16
McClellan Summation Index: 3,644.09 up from previous day of 3,604.84
% Stocks Above 200 DMA: 86.98 down from previous day of 87.62
% Stocks Above 40 DMA: 80.19 down from previous day of 81.35
New High / New Low Ratio: 95.68 up from previous day of 95.33
26wk New High/Low Ratio: 95.05 up from previous day of 94.83
13wk New High/Low Ratio: 94.73 up from previous day of 94.15
4wk New High/Low Ratio: 91.41 up from previous day of 90.05
Cumulative 4-Week New Hi-Low: 445,965 up from previous day of 444,871
Nasdaq Adv/Decline: 1,830 down from previous day of 1,833
Russell 1000 Advance/ Decline Line: 2,803 down from previous day of 2,828
Russell 2000 Advance/ Decline Line: (1,477) down from previous day of (1,460)
Notes:
Absolute Breadth Index: Low numbers suggest a topping process and high numbers suggest a bottoming process.
Cumulative Volume Index: If this begins to trend down while the averages are trending up, it is a bearish sign. If this begins to trend up while the averages are trending down, it is a bullish sign.
High Low Logic Index: High readings are bearish; low readings are bullish.
McClellan Oscillator: -100 is oversold and +100 is overbought. Also watch for crosses above and below zero.
McClellan Summation Index: Interpreted as bullish or bearish when it crosses over the zero line.
Cumulative 4-Week New Hi-Low: The difference between the number of issues reaching new highs (during a 4-week period) and the number of issues reaching new lows (during the same 4-week period).
Tuesday, April 27
Economics
09:00 Case-Shiller 20 city index -0.10% cons.
10:00 Consumer Confidence 54.0 cons.
09:30 Australia PPI
Earnings
Before: MMM, AMG, AMED, ECOL, ADP, AVY, BEAV, BP, CPLA, CRS, CIT, CCE, CPO, CMI, DD, ELNK, ENR, EL, HSP, LAZ, LXK, MHP, NOV, NEM, ODP, OXPS, PCH, SPAR, SWK, TYC, UAUA, UPS, LCC, VLO, WAT, WU, WHR,
After: AFL, AMAG, BXP, BWLD, CENX, DFG, DWA, EPIQ, FLEX, JLL, KONA, LIFE, PNRA, PFWD, PRAA, RFMD, SIMG, WSII
Auction
1:00 2-yr Note Auction
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city home price index is expected to have fallen 0.1% in February from January levels. In January the index fell 0.7% from the previous month. The Consumer Confidence index from the Conference Board is due shortly after the start of trading. The index is expected to have risen to 54 in April from 52.5. The Senate holds a hearing on the role investment banks played in the 2008 market meltdown. Among those scheduled to testify: Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Fabrice Tourre - the executive at the center of the fraud case.
Mel’s Missives from the Matrix:
• Total tick for the day was 57,000 and the average tick for the day was 37. There were 41 ticks greater than 600 and 43 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and 1 ticks more extreme than -1000.
• The day's range was 8.73 points. The 5 DMA of daily range is 13.28.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am volume was 98.73% of the 10 day average. By noon the volume was 94.7% of the 10 day average, and by 2pm volume was 93.53% of the 10 day average.
• The day's volume was 112.8% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 94.6% of the last 10 day average and 102.6% of the previous day’s volume.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: The largest increase in relative volume came between 1:30 and 1:45 when relative volume increased 54.3% while the SPX was dropping -0.03%. The largest drop in relative volume came between 1:45 and 2:00 when relative volume dropped -49.1% while the SPX was dropping -0.01%.
• 26% of the SPX stocks closed with two day RSI above 90. 36% closed with RSI above 80. 11% closed with RSI below 20 and 5% closed with RSI below 10.
• 64.4% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 70.4% are above their 10 day average, 76% are above their 20 day moving average, 85.2% are above their 50 day moving average, and 85.4% are above their 100 day moving average.
• 24% of the SPX closed above their most recent previous high.
• 16% of the SPX stocks closed below their most recent previous lows.
• 183 SPX issues advanced and 308 issues declined, a net SPX advance/decline of -125.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 45.6% of the SPX components were in the top half of the range. By noon, 42.6% were in the top half of the range, and by 2pm, 41.2% were in the top half of the range.
• 26% of stocks closed in the top half of the day's range. (73.8% closed in bottom half.)
• 1.2% of stocks closed in the top 10% of the day's range. 4.8% of stocks closed in the top 20% of the day's range.
• 24.2% of stocks closed in the bottom 10% of the day's range. 44.6% of stocks closed in the bottom 20% of the day's range.
• 39.8% of stocks closed within 2% of their 52 week high. 64.8% of stocks closed within 5% of their 52 week high.
• 39.6% of stocks closed within 50% of their 52 week low. 10.2% of stocks closed within 25% of their 52 week low.
• 3% of stocks closed within ¼% of their high for the day.
• 33.4% of stocks closed within ¼% of their low for the day.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 52.8% of the SPX components were up since the open. By noon, 50.8% were up since the open, and by 2pm, 49.6% were up since the open.
• 36.4% of the SPX closed up from the previous close; 35.6% closed higher than the open.
• Sectors stronger than the SPX for Monday:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +83%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +1%.
- Industrials -- Outperformed the SPX by +64%.
- Technology -- Outperformed the SPX by +35%.
- Consumer Staples -- Outperformed the SPX by +22%.
- Utilities -- Outperformed the SPX by +7%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Outperformed the SPX by +121%.
• Sectors weaker than the SPX for Monday:
- Financials -- Underperformed the SPX by -112%.
- Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -75%.
• The $SOX index strength was stronger relative to the SPX Monday by 0.54%.
• The XLF underperformed the SPX by -1.12% Monday.
• The 2 Day RSI of the SPX is 54. The Dow RSI is 96, the NASDAQ is 67 and the Russell is 74.
• Over the last four sessions, the average session closed 65.41% of the range above the low. Monday closed at 9.5% of the daily range.
• Upside momentum decreased Monday, from Friday’s 3.16 to today’s 2.71. The ratio of SPX components giving a crossover buy signal compared to sell signals increased to B 4.89 to 1.
• The ISEE Equity 10 day moving average Monday was 229. The lowest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 141.5 on 06/29/09 and the highest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 249.3 on 04/15/10.
• 135 SPX components moved upward and 186 components downward during the after hours with 129 million shares traded.
Trade 'em well on Tuesday everyone!
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"Mel"
