A Revisit to the Wax Museum
by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson
News before the open told us that personal Incomes were unchanged in February. January’s reading was revised upward. Personal Spending was in line with expectations. The PCE Core was unchanged in February while the PCE Deflator was up 1.8% over the past year. We were also told that the government plans to unload billions of shares of Citi this year. With the exception of Japan, Asian markets were higher while European markets were hovering above breakeven. Futures were pointing to a higher open.
With the pressure from the futures, the week opened with a gap upward, but as has been the recent pattern, fading the gap was the play to make as the SPX gave back much of the gap before the end of the opening hour. The index then struggled upward for an hour before retracing and consolidating sideways in some of the most boring trade you’ll ever see. It was a truly dull trading session as the stock exchange once again turned into the wax museum. The SPX closed right where it was five minutes after the open and traded within a six point range from 9:35 through the close.
There are some signs of weakness creeping in. The Dow closed at a new closing high today; other major indices did not. The Advance/Decline also failed to close at a new high today. Our matrix continues to suggest that a pullback is approaching. But this market is being awfully stubborn about it.
Day Trade Systems Update: (signals today)
* Scalp Short at: 11:36
* Scalp Long at: 1:15
SPX Summary for Monday, March 29, 2010
366 Advancers/122 Decliners
Today's SPX component winners and losers:
• Largest one day loser is C with -3.47%
• Largest three day loser is RHT with -8.42%
• Largest five day loser is GENZ with -10.26%
• Largest ten day loser is CNX with -12.69%
• Largest one day winner is SWN with 8.07%
• Largest three day winner is CBG with 12.91%
• Largest five day winner is TIE with 15.60%
• Largest ten day winner is TIE with 22.26%
*** SPX Technical Summary ***
The lowest 14 day RSI component is BDK; the highest 14 day RSI component is RX. The average 14 day RSI of all 500 components is 61.
The greatest positive five day momentum component is TIE; the greatest negative five day momentum component is GENZ. The average five day momentum of all 500 components is 0.48.
54.00% of the SPX components are giving a crossover Buy signal; 12.80% of the SPX components are giving a Sell signal. This is a 4.2 to 1 ratio of Buy signals over Sell signals.
SPX component signal changes today (evidence of trend):
• From Sell to Neutral: 1 component.
• From Buy to Neutral: 36 components.
• From Neutral to Sell: 8 components.
• From Neutral to Buy: 17 components.
The moving averages:
Close 1173.22
9 EMA 1164.80 Rising
10 DMA 1166.25 Rising
20 DMA 1151.78 Rising
50 DMA 1118.56 Rising
100 DMA 1113.34 Rising
200 DMA 1057.43 Rising
10 Wk MA 1121.93 Rising
NYSE Summary
On the NYSE 3198 issues were traded with 2139 advancing issues and 955 retreating issues, a ratio of 2.24 to 1 advancing. There were 209 new highs and 9 new lows. The three day total of new lows continues to increase.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 2.02 to 1. The closing TRIN was 1.11 and the final tick was 369.
Evidence of trend:
Relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -10.66% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 3 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 26 sessions ended on a positive tick, 7 of last 10.
Remember: Breadth leads, indices follow. Today, the NYSE Advance/Decline line increased from 203222 to 204406. This 0.58% increase came while the SPX was gaining 0.57%. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume is 1.18 and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio is 1.22. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume has trended 0.17 over the last three days and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio has trended 0.11 over the last three days.
The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.83% today.
Mel’s Missives from the Matrix:
• Total tick for the day was 106,000. There were 54 ticks greater than 600 and 20 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 0 ticks greater than 1000 and 2 ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional accumulation.
• The day's range was 7.14 points. The 5 DMA of daily range is 10.56.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am volume was 86.77% of the 10 day average. By noon the volume was 99.83% of the 10 day average, and by 2pm volume was 96.7% of the 10 day average.
• The day's volume was 85.6% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 93.1% of the last 10 day average and 96.4% of the previous day’s volume.
• 12% of the SPX stocks closed with two day RSI above 90. 28% closed with RSI above 80. 13% closed with RSI below 20 and 6% closed with RSI below 10.
• 59% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 60% are above their 10 day average, and 76.2% are above their 20 day moving average.
• 34% of the SPX closed above their most recent previous high.
• 9% of the SPX stocks closed below their most recent previous lows.
• 366 SPX issues advanced and 122 issues declined, a net SPX advance/decline of 244.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 38% of the SPX components were in the top half of the range. By noon, 61.4% were in the top half of the range, and by 2pm, 51.6% were in the top half of the range.
• 59% of stocks closed in the top half of the day's range. (41% closed in bottom half.)
• 12.8% of stocks closed in the top 10% of the day's range. 27.6% of stocks closed in the top 20% of the day's range.
• 4.8% of stocks closed in the bottom 10% of the day's range. 11.2% of stocks closed in the bottom 20% of the day's range.
• 29.2% of stocks closed within 2% of their 52 week high. 55.6% of stocks closed within 5% of their 52 week high.
• 38.8% of stocks closed within 50% of their 52 week low. 9.6% of stocks closed within 25% of their 52 week low.
• 23.8% of stocks closed within ¼% of their high for the day.
• 9.4% of stocks closed within ¼% of their low for the day.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 71.8% of the SPX components were up since the open. By noon, 78.8% were up since the open, and by 2pm, 72.6% were up since the open.
• 73.6% of the SPX closed up from the previous close; 59.2% closed higher than the open.
• Sectors stronger than the SPX for Monday:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +52%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +128%.
- Industrials -- Outperformed the SPX by +11%.
- Utilities -- Outperformed the SPX by +79%.
- Health Care -- Outperformed the SPX by +43%.
• -
• Sectors weaker than the SPX for Monday:
- Financials -- Underperformed the SPX by -38%.
- Technology -- Underperformed the SPX by -39%.
- Consumer Staples -- Underperformed the SPX by -21%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Underperformed the SPX by -63%.
• The $SOX index strength was stronger relative to the SPX Monday by 0.38%.
• The XLF underperformed the SPX by -0.38% Monday.
• The 2 Day RSI of the SPX is 71. The Dow RSI is 79, the NASDAQ is 62 and the Russell is 53.
• Over the last four sessions, the average session closed 36.66% of the range above the low. Monday closed at 76.9% of the daily range.
• Upside momentum decreased Monday, from Friday’s 0.57 to today’s 0.48. The ratio of SPX components giving a crossover buy signal compared to sell signals also dropped to B 4.22 to 1.
• The ISEE Equity 10 day moving average Monday was 196.4. The lowest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 141.5 on 06/29/09 and the highest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 207.3 on 01/19/10.
• 230 SPX components moved upward and 121 components downward during the after hours with 89 million shares traded.
Good trading on Tuesday everyone!
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"Mel"
