End of Day Snapback Rally
by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson
Before the open we were told that the Monster Employment Index rose 1 point in March to a reading of 125, compared to year-ago level of 118. Challenger, Grey & Christmas report planned job cuts for March increased to 67.1K. This was an increase of 25K from February’s 42.09K. The Labor Department reported initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending March 27th fell by 6,000 to 439K, which was just below the expectations for a reading of 440K. Continuing Claims for unemployment for the week ending March 20th were above consensus at 4.662M vs. expectations for 4.618M. Asian markets were up while European markets were also higher. Futures are pointed to a strong open as the market looked to yet again recover losses quickly.
The session opened with a strong gap upward and continued upward for half an hour, setting the high of the day at 10:01. The SPX traded downward in an orderly descent for the next three and half hours. Shortly before 2pm the tenor abruptly changed and the index quickly surrendered eight points in two waves downward. But the last 75 minutes saw a sharp snapback recovering almost the entire eight points.
The action of the last hour could make one think that the jobs data had leaked early. I can not recall the market ever being closed on the day that the employment data is released; we can be sure that the market will react strongly on Monday. It certainly seems that the big money is betting on the long side.
I expect to write a weekend update after the jobs data is released to the rest of us.
Day Trade Systems Update: (Signals Thursday)
* Scalp Short at: 10:27
* UYM Long Scalp at: 11:27
* Scalp Short at: 12:09
* Bounce Alert at: 1:52
* UYM Long Scalp at: 2:22
I've attached a graphic with every trade signal from this week shown.
SPX Summary for Thursday, April 01, 2010
401 Advancers/90 Decliners
350 Advancers/142 Decliners for the week.
Today's SPX component winners and losers:
• Largest one day loser is SLM with -6.33%
• Largest three day loser is SAI with -7.88%
• Largest five day loser is SAI with -8.74%
• Largest ten day loser is SAI with -8.93%
• Largest one day winner is LM with 6.72%
• Largest three day winner is PXD with 8.62%
• Largest five day winner is CBG with 14.74%
• Largest ten day winner is TIE with 18.80%
*** SPX Technical Summary ***
The lowest 14 day RSI component is CNX; the highest 14 day RSI component is BDK. The average 14 day RSI of all 500 components is 60.
The greatest positive five day momentum component is CBG; the greatest negative five day momentum component is SAI. The average five day momentum of all 500 components is 1.44.
49.80% of the SPX components are giving a crossover Buy signal; 15.60% of the SPX components are giving a Sell signal. This is a 3.2 to 1 ratio of Buy signals over Sell signals.
SPX component signal changes today (evidence of trend):
• From Sell to Neutral: 24 components.
• From Buy to Neutral: 15 components.
• From Neutral to Sell: 17 components.
• From Neutral to Buy: 35 components.
The moving averages:
Close 1178.10
9 EMA 1169.01 Rising
10 DMA 1169.11 Rising
20 DMA 1159.77 Rising
50 DMA 1120.44 Rising
100 DMA 1116.97 Rising
200 DMA 1061.12 Rising
10 Wk MA 1122.40 Rising
NYSE Summary
On the NYSE 3188 issues were traded with 2290 advancing issues and 790 retreating issues, a ratio of 2.90 to 1 advancing. There were 318 new highs and 5 new lows.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 6.19 to 1. The closing TRIN was 0.47 and the final tick was 665.
Evidence of trend:
Relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -12.18% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 3 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 25 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10.
Remember: Breadth leads, indices follow. Today, the NYSE Advance/Decline line increased from 203874 to 205374. This 0.73% increase came while the SPX was gaining 0.74%. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume is 1.06 and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio is 1.13. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume has trended 0.04 over the last three days and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio has trended 0.01 over the last three days.
The NYSE Composite Index gained 1.22% today.
Mel’s Missives from the Matrix:
• Total tick for the day was 126,000. There were 72 ticks greater than 600 and 63 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 3 ticks greater than 1000 and 2 ticks more extreme than -1000.
• Total tick for the week was 245,000.
• The day's range was 10.74 points. The 5 DMA of daily range is 8.89.
• The week's range was a mere 15.66 points, 1.34%. This is the smallest weekly range since February 2007. (The following week lost 4.4%.)
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am volume was 81.63% of the 10 day average. By noon the volume was 79.76% of the 10 day average, and by 2pm volume was 81.56% of the 10 day average.
• The day's volume was 78.7% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 84.6% of the last 10 day average and 92.7% of the previous day’s volume.
• 23% of the SPX stocks closed with two day RSI above 90. 41% closed with RSI above 80. 12% closed with RSI below 20 and 6% closed with RSI below 10.
• 71.4% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 67.4% are above their 10 day average, and 73.8% are above their 20 day moving average.
• 44% of the SPX closed above their most recent previous high.
• 10% of the SPX stocks closed below their most recent previous lows.
• 401 SPX issues advanced and 90 issues declined, a net SPX advance/decline of 311.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 74.4% of the SPX components were in the top half of the range. By noon, 52.2% were in the top half of the range, and by 2pm, 32.6% were in the top half of the range.
• 58.8% of stocks closed in the top half of the day's range. (41% closed in bottom half.)
• 14.4% of stocks closed in the top 10% of the day's range. 23.4% of stocks closed in the top 20% of the day's range.
• 1.2% of stocks closed in the bottom 10% of the day's range. 4.8% of stocks closed in the bottom 20% of the day's range.
• 29.4% of stocks closed within 2% of their 52 week high. 57.8% of stocks closed within 5% of their 52 week high.
• 37.6% of stocks closed within 50% of their 52 week low. 9.2% of stocks closed within 25% of their 52 week low.
• 21% of stocks closed within ¼% of their high for the day.
• 2% of stocks closed within ¼% of their low for the day.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 94.4% of the SPX components were up since the open. By noon, 85.2% were up since the open, and by 2pm, 72.6% were up since the open.
• 80.8% of the SPX closed up from the previous close; 61% closed higher than the open.
• Sectors stronger than the SPX for Thursday:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +99%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +103%.
- Financials -- Outperformed the SPX by +14%.
- Utilities -- Outperformed the SPX by +58%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Outperformed the SPX by +6%.
• Sectors weaker than the SPX for Thursday:
- Industrials -- Underperformed the SPX by -9%.
- Technology -- Underperformed the SPX by -81%.
- Consumer Staples -- Underperformed the SPX by -9%.
- Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -17%.
• The $SOX index strength was weaker relative to the SPX Thursday by -0.63%.
• The XLF outperformed the SPX by 0.14% Thursday.
• The 2 Day RSI of the SPX is 79. The Dow RSI is 74, the NASDAQ is 41 and the Russell is 65.
• Over the last four sessions, the average session closed 59.16% of the range above the low. Thursday closed at 67.7% of the daily range.
• Upside momentum increased Thursday, from Wednesday’s 0.1 to today’s 1.44. The ratio of SPX components giving a crossover buy signal compared to sell signals also jumped to B 3.19 to 1.
• The ISEE Equity 10 day moving average Thursday was 204.4. The lowest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 141.5 on 06/29/09 and the highest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 207.3 on 01/19/10.
• 261 SPX components moved upward and 90 components downward during the after hours with 86 million shares traded.
Have a great weekend everyone!
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"Mel"
