Melt Up Continues
by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson
Sunday night futures gave the familiar pump to begin the week but the psychological resistance at round numbers provided resistance and the futures were flat-to-negative as the week opened.
The week began with a quick three point pop upward followed quickly by giving that back and setting the low of the day at 10:00. From there the wax museum returned and the rest of the session was a very dull narrow range affair. Friday was the narrowest range in the previous seven sessions; today was even tighter.
NR7 sessions often lead to a couple of days of volatility; earnings reports also often lead to volatility. Over the last 18 months the SPX has averaged a daily range of 18 points; we haven't had one 18 point day in more than two months. Needless to say, we're overdue for some volatility -- and as a trader, I am more than anxious for the volatility to return.
Our matrix continues to look for a multi-day pullback.
Day Trade Systems Update: (Signals today)
* UYM Long at: 2:26
SPX Summary for Monday, April 12, 2010
273 Advancers/217 Decliners
Today's SPX component winners and losers:
• Largest one day loser is M with -2.42%
• Largest three day loser is FRX with -12.63%
• Largest five day loser is MEE with -15.82%
• Largest ten day loser is SAI with -9.60%
• Largest one day winner is AIG with 8.13%
• Largest three day winner is EK with 11.79%
• Largest five day winner is AIG with 17.66%
• Largest ten day winner is EK with 25.25%
*** SPX Technical Summary ***
The lowest 14 day RSI component is BIIB; the highest 14 day RSI component is BDK. The average 14 day RSI of all 500 components is 60.
The greatest positive five day momentum component is AIG; the greatest negative five day momentum component is MEE. The average five day momentum of all 500 components is 0.7.
62.00% of the SPX components are giving a crossover Buy signal; 12.00% of the SPX components are giving a Sell signal. This is a 5.2 to 1 ratio of Buy signals over Sell signals.
SPX component signal changes today (evidence of trend):
• From Sell to Neutral: 5 components.
• From Buy to Neutral: 17 components.
• From Neutral to Sell: 11 components.
• From Neutral to Buy: 14 components.
The moving averages:
Close 1196.48
9 EMA 1195.89 Rising
5 DMA 1189.84 Rising
10 DMA 1183.06 Rising
20 DMA 1173.63 Rising
50 DMA 1131.60 Rising
100 DMA 1123.03 Rising
200 DMA 1069.71 Rising
10 Wk MA 1147.17 Rising
NYSE Summary
On the NYSE 3193 issues were traded with 1751 advancing issues and 1325 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.32 to 1 advancing. There were 436 new highs and 5 new lows.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 1.79 to 1. The closing TRIN was 0.74 and the final tick was 304.
Evidence of trend:
Relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -6.33% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 3 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 25 sessions ended on a positive tick, 9 of last 10.
The 5 day moving average of New Highs is 324 while the 5 day moving average of new lows is 5 and the 10 day moving average of Net Advancing is 494. The Net Advancing data indicates a bullish trend.
Remember: Breadth leads, indices follow. Today, the NYSE Advance/Decline line increased from 207738 to 208164. This 0.20% increase came while the SPX was gaining 0.18%. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume is 1.5 and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio is 1.38. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume has trended 0.2 over the last three days and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio has trended 0.17 over the last three days.
The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.17% today.
NYSE Statistics:
Note: This is a new nightly addition designed to keep swing traders on the correct side of the trend.
Absolute Breadth Index: 30.25 down from previous day of 33.07
Cumulative Volume Index: 83,582.14 up from previous day of 81,679.05
High Low Logic Index: 0.81 up from previous day of 0.70
McClellan Oscillator: 50.04 up from previous day of 48.74
McClellan 10 DMA: 25.61 up from previous day of 14.20
McClellan Summation Index: 3,513.31 up from previous day of 3,463.27
% Stocks Above 200 DMA: 87.27 up from previous day of 86.94
% Stocks Above 40 DMA: 83.51 up from previous day of 83.46
New High / New Low Ratio: 93.60 down from previous day of 94.12
26wk New High/Low Ratio: 93.21 down from previous day of 93.93
13wk New High/Low Ratio: 92.72 down from previous day of 93.00
4wk New High/Low Ratio: 90.64 up from previous day of 87.15
Cumulative 4-Week New Hi-Low: 439,403 up from previous day of 438,474
Nasdaq Adv/Decline: 1,719 up from previous day of 1,710
Russell 1000 Advance/ Decline Line: 2,674 up from previous day of 2,662
Russell 2000 Advance/ Decline Line: (1,652) up from previous day of (1,659)
Notes:
Absolute Breadth Index: Low numbers suggest a topping process and high numbers suggest a bottoming process.
Cumulative Volume Index: If this begins to trend down while the averages are trending up, it is a bearish sign. If this begins to trend up while the averages are trending down, it is a bullish sign.
High Low Logic Index: High readings are bearish; low readings are bullish.
McClellan Oscillator: -100 is oversold and +100 is overbought. Also watch for crosses above and below zero.
McClellan Summation Index: Interpreted as bullish or bearish when it crosses over the zero line.
Cumulative 4-Week New Hi-Low: The difference between the number of issues reaching new highs (during a 4-week period) and the number of issues reaching new lows (during the same 4-week period).
Tuesday, April 13
Economics
08:30 Export Prices ex-ag
08:30 Import Price ex-oil
08:30 Trade Balance
02:00 Germany CPI
02:45 France CPI
04:30 Great Britain Merchandise Trade
08:30 Canada Merchandise Trade
Earnings
Before: FAST, INFY
After: ADTN, CSX, HCSG, INTC
Speeches
07:15 Jeffrey Lacker
March's import/export prices and the February trade balance are slated for release on Tuesday morning. The Trade Balance is expected to have widened to $39 billion from $37.3 billion in January. On the earnings front, Fastenal Company (FAST), Infosys Technologies Limited (INFY), CSX Corp. (CSX) and Intel Corp. (INTC) are scheduled to release their quarterly reports.
Mel’s Missives from the Matrix:
• Total tick for the day was 146,000. There were 42 ticks greater than 600 and 29 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and 1 ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional accumulation.
• The day's range was 4.49 points. The 5 DMA of daily range is 9.44.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am volume was 79.37% of the 10 day average. By noon the volume was 86.67% of the 10 day average, and by 2pm volume was 87.48% of the 10 day average.
• The day's volume was 91.3% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 88.9% of the last 10 day average and 91.2% of the previous day’s volume.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: The largest increase in relative volume came between 12:45 and 1:00 when relative volume increased 28.9% while the SPX was rising 0.08%. The largest drop in relative volume came between 2:15 and 2:30 when relative volume dropped -30.7% while the SPX was rising 0.06%.
• 21% of the SPX stocks closed with two day RSI above 90. 38% closed with RSI above 80. 10% closed with RSI below 20 and 5% closed with RSI below 10.
• 68.2% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 74.4% are above their 10 day average, and 78.6% are above their 20 day moving average.
• 36% of the SPX closed above their most recent previous high.
• 9% of the SPX stocks closed below their most recent previous lows.
• 273 SPX issues advanced and 217 issues declined, a net SPX advance/decline of 56.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 30.4% of the SPX components were in the top half of the range. By noon, 45.8% were in the top half of the range, and by 2pm, 49.2% were in the top half of the range.
• 46.2% of stocks closed in the top half of the day's range. (53.6% closed in bottom half.)
• 6.8% of stocks closed in the top 10% of the day's range. 12.4% of stocks closed in the top 20% of the day's range.
• 6.2% of stocks closed in the bottom 10% of the day's range. 18.6% of stocks closed in the bottom 20% of the day's range.
• 38.8% of stocks closed within 2% of their 52 week high. 63.8% of stocks closed within 5% of their 52 week high.
• 39% of stocks closed within 50% of their 52 week low. 10% of stocks closed within 25% of their 52 week low.
• 14.8% of stocks closed within ¼% of their high for the day.
• 18.4% of stocks closed within ¼% of their low for the day.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 48.2% of the SPX components were up since the open. By noon, 53.2% were up since the open, and by 2pm, 55.2% were up since the open.
• 54% of the SPX closed up from the previous close; 48% closed higher than the open.
• Sectors stronger than the SPX for Monday:
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +22%.
- Financials -- Outperformed the SPX by +24%.
- Industrials -- Outperformed the SPX by +1%.
- Technology -- Outperformed the SPX by +3%.
- Consumer Staples -- Outperformed the SPX by +14%.
- Utilities -- Outperformed the SPX by +8%.
• Sectors weaker than the SPX for Monday:
- Basic Materials -- Underperformed the SPX by -49%.
- Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -46%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Underperformed the SPX by -12%.
• The $SOX index strength was stronger relative to the SPX Monday by 0.68%.
• The XLF outperformed the SPX by 0.24% Monday.
• The 2 Day RSI of the SPX is 89. The Dow RSI is 84, the NASDAQ is 93 and the Russell is 92.
• Over the last four sessions, the average session closed 65.49% of the range above the low. Monday closed at 40.3% of the daily range.
• Upside momentum decreased Monday, from Friday’s 1.74 to today’s 0.7. The ratio of SPX components giving a crossover buy signal compared to sell signals also decreased to B 5.17 to 1.
• The ISEE Equity 10 day moving average Monday was 237.5. The lowest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 141.5 on 06/29/09 and the highest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 237.5 on 04/12/10.
• 155 SPX components moved upward and 200 components downward during the after hours with 106 million shares traded.
Good trading on Tuesday everyone!
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"Mel"
