Never-ending Upward
by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson
Futures were high pre-open coming off the Friday release of the jobs data. We received reports on the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March as well as results for Pending Home sales from February during the session. All news was perceived as good news and traders were evidently happy with the data.
The week began with the customary Monday pump, retraced half the gap before 9:45, then ran hard until 11am putting the high of the session on the chart at 10:53. The rest of the session was essentially consolidation, sideways with a slight downward bias.
The market appears to have consolidated with a sideways correction over the last week. This seems bullish. All of the major averages on the major indices are rising; once again bullish. The market is well overdue for a pullback; we have passed any historical guides. The market moves in cycles; but this market seems only to move in one direction. So everyone must be bullish as the indices breakout to the upside.
But I'll close with a couple of charts; first the ISEE 5 day moving average showing recent peaks. The second chart is the NYSE New Highs and Lows (5 day moving average) and what happens when the New Highs rolls over from a peak. The last chart is simply the SPX chart so that you can draw your own conclusions from the dates on the upper two charts.
Indeed, this market may go up endlessly. Bears may completely surrender and turn bullish, or go pick flowers. And PIGS may fly.
Day Trade Systems Update: (Signals today)
* Short Scalp at: 10:59
* Short Scalp at: 2:57
SPX Summary for Monday, April 05, 2010
412 Advancers/79 Decliners
Today's SPX component winners and losers:
• Largest one day loser is TSO with -5.42%
• Largest three day loser is SAI with -8.27%
• Largest five day loser is SAI with -9.65%
• Largest ten day loser is GENZ with -11.62%
• Largest one day winner is EK with 13.71%
• Largest three day winner is EK with 15.45%
• Largest five day winner is PXD with 16.14%
• Largest ten day winner is JDSU with 18.61%
*** SPX Technical Summary ***
The lowest 14 day RSI component is SAI; the highest 14 day RSI component is BDK. The average 14 day RSI of all 500 components is 63.
The greatest positive five day momentum component is PXD; the greatest negative five day momentum component is SAI. The average five day momentum of all 500 components is 2.55.
56.00% of the SPX components are giving a crossover Buy signal; 12.20% of the SPX components are giving a Sell signal. This is a 4.6 to 1 ratio of Buy signals over Sell signals.
SPX component signal changes today (evidence of trend):
• From Sell to Neutral: 24 components.
• From Buy to Neutral: 12 components.
• From Neutral to Sell: 8 components.
• From Neutral to Buy: 43 components.
NYSE Summary
On the NYSE 3209 issues were traded with 2336 advancing issues and 779 retreating issues, a ratio of 3.00 to 1 advancing. There were 481 new highs and 6 new lows.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 4.76 to 1. The closing TRIN was 0.63 and the final tick was 1035.
Evidence of trend:
Relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -13.73% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 3 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 25 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10.
Remember: Breadth leads, indices follow. Today, the NYSE Advance/Decline line increased from 205374 to 206931. This 0.75% increase came while the SPX was gaining 0.79%. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume is 1.47 and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio is 1.36. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume has trended 0.58 over the last three days and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio has trended 0.37 over the last three days.
The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.82% today.
Tuesday, April 6
Economics
02:00 FOMC Minutes
12:30 RBA Announcement
Auctions
01:00 3-Yr Note Action
Speeches
01:00 Naryana Kocherlakota
Tuesday offers up the minutes from last month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. No major earnings reports are scheduled.
Mel’s Missives from the Matrix:
• Total tick for the day was 257,000. There were 68 ticks greater than 600 and 7 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and no ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional accumulation.
• The day's range was 9.02 points. The 5 DMA of daily range is 9.36.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am volume was 68.97% of the 10 day average. By noon the volume was 74.77% of the 10 day average, and by 2pm volume was 74.95% of the 10 day average.
• The day's volume was 76.4% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 77.2% of the last 10 day average and 90.3% of the previous day’s volume.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: The largest increase in relative volume came between 10:15 and 10:30 when relative volume increased 21.2% while the SPX was flat. The largest drop in relative volume came between 1:45 and 2:00 when relative volume dropped -23.0% while the SPX was flat.
• 47% of the SPX stocks closed with two day RSI above 90. 71% closed with RSI above 80. 4% closed with RSI below 20 and 2% closed with RSI below 10.
• 82.2% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 78.8% are above their 10 day average, and 83.2% are above their 20 day moving average.
• 64% of the SPX closed above their most recent previous high.
• 5% of the SPX stocks closed below their most recent previous lows.
• 412 SPX issues advanced and 79 issues declined, a net SPX advance/decline of 333.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 69.6% of the SPX components were in the top half of the range. By noon, 79.4% were in the top half of the range, and by 2pm, 68% were in the top half of the range.
• 73.8% of stocks closed in the top half of the day's range. (26% closed in bottom half.)
• 26.2% of stocks closed in the top 10% of the day's range. 44.8% of stocks closed in the top 20% of the day's range.
• 1.8% of stocks closed in the bottom 10% of the day's range. 7.8% of stocks closed in the bottom 20% of the day's range.
• 43.4% of stocks closed within 2% of their 52 week high. 62.4% of stocks closed within 5% of their 52 week high.
• 37.4% of stocks closed within 50% of their 52 week low. 9.2% of stocks closed within 25% of their 52 week low.
• 35.8% of stocks closed within ¼% of their high for the day.
• 8% of stocks closed within ¼% of their low for the day.
• Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 79.6% of the SPX components were up since the open. By noon, 84% were up since the open, and by 2pm, 78.6% were up since the open.
• 81.4% of the SPX closed up from the previous close; 73.2% closed higher than the open.
• Sectors stronger than the SPX for Monday:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +42%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +85%.
- Financials -- Outperformed the SPX by +19%.
- Technology -- Outperformed the SPX by +41%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Outperformed the SPX by +32%.
• Sectors weaker than the SPX for Monday:
- Industrials -- Underperformed the SPX by -7%.
- Consumer Staples -- Underperformed the SPX by -65%.
- Utilities -- Underperformed the SPX by -7%.
- Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -107%.
• The $SOX index strength was stronger relative to the SPX Monday by 2.16%.
• The XLF outperformed the SPX by 0.19% Monday.
• The 2 Day RSI of the SPX is 92. The Dow RSI is 87, the NASDAQ is 89 and the Russell is 92.
• Over the last four sessions, the average session closed 64.06% of the range above the low. Monday closed at 97.3% of the daily range.
• Upside momentum increased Monday, from Thursday’s 1.44 to today’s 2.55. The ratio of SPX components giving a crossover buy signal compared to sell signals also jumped to B 4.59 to 1.
• The ISEE Equity 10 day moving average Monday was 215.7. The lowest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 141.5 on 06/29/09 and the highest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 215.7 on today, 04/05/10.
• 216 SPX components moved upward and 163 components downward during the after hours with 90 million shares traded.
Good trading on Tuesday everyone!
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"Mel"
