SPX New Highs But Sluggish Low Volume Session
Market Recap:
Other than Japan's GDP coming in a bit better than expected and the rebound in Asia based on the Mubarak news, there just wasn't much happening as the week began. We had no economic data to review before the open and there wasn't anything of significance on the calendar for today.
The week began without a significant gap. The SPX traded sluggishly and mostly sideways but did something a bit rare by putting the low of the day on the chart after the opening hour, at 10:49. But the dip buyers arrived on cue even though the dip was miniscule and the index began to gently ascend. We felt like we were trapped in a theater watching the same movie over and again today as the market did the low volume levitation act that we have seen so often. Once again the lows were in the morning and the highs were near the close. This may be a new week but it sure looks a lot like the old one.
Checking our Market Leaders board this evening we find a mixed set of leaders. The Dow, Emerging Markets, and Germany closed lower. Every leader had a smaller than 1% range with the sole exception of the chip makers ($SOX) and no one netted anywhere near a 1% gain or loss. It was truly sluggish with all the leaders were standing still.
SPX big winners were Tesoro Corp (TSO) 7.92%, Netflix Inc (NFLX) 6.99%, and Cliffs Nat'l Resources Inc (CLF) 5.85%. SPX big losers were Clorox Co (CLX) -6.25%, Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc (MMI) -5.47%, and Macy's Inc (M) -3.05%.
SPX five day big winners are JDS Uniphase Corp (JDSU) 23.19%, Nyse Euronext (NYX) 16.85%, and Netflix Inc (NFLX) 13.54%. SPX five day big losers are Computer Sciences Corp (CSC) -15.21%, Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) -14.62%, and Expedia Inc (EXPE) -14.27%.
Market Trend: Nine Sectors Report
Turning to our Nine Sectors Report we have many changes as sectors are moving into Neutral. Our Nine Sectors signal remains mired in Neutral as well.
After hours this evening, Fed Ex lowered third quarter guidance blaming severe weather and higher fuel costs. Fed Ex is often looked upon as a bellwether for the economy because if you're not shipping you're not selling. So we'll have to watch the open on Tuesday to see what impact this may have, if any.
When the SPX was at a 52 week high on the Friday and the Monday before options expiration, the SPX closed at a lower level on opex the last seven occurrences.
As this market ignores everything and simply climbs, little matters any more, But today was the narrowest range day in the last seven (NR7) days. In the past, when we get a NR7 at 52 week highs with low volume we have seen a lower close within ten days eleven of the last twelve times.
Volume & Breadth Indicators
For the SPX Index there were 235 components advancing and 246 components declining. On the NYSE 3,156 issues were traded with 1,678 advancing issues and 1,359 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.23 to one advancing. There were 355 new highs and 11 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 267 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 12 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 518. The Net Advancing data indicates a bullish trend.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 1.48 to one. The closing TRIN was 0.84 and the final tick was 227. The five day average of TRIN is 1.03 and the ten day average of TRIN is .98. The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.36% today while the SPX gained 0.24%.
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -21.49% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 8 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 25 sessions ended on a positive tick, 10 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 78.7% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 88.2% of the last 10 day average and 88.1% of the previous day’s volume.
SPX breadth was negative while NYSE breadth was positive. New Highs were very strong. While breadth doesn’t look strong, this is the kind of rally that can carry on a long time; it doesn’t burn so fast that it burns itself up, it just smolders.
Total tick for the day was 140,000 and the average tick for the day was 91. There were 4 ticks greater than 600 and 3 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and no ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional accumulation.
Volume was so sluggish today that it's impossible to see any significant intraday pattern. Looking at the Nightly Breadth Indicators is almost as useless; today was essentially a meaningless day for the indices. But it is worth noticing that the New High/New Low ratios continue to decline.
Moving Average and Support/Resistance Indicators:
74.4% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 80.4% are above their 10 day average, 82.8% are above their 20 day moving average, 81% are above their 50 day moving average, and 90% are above their 200 day moving average.
Emerging Markets 20 DMA moved below the 100 DMA today. Anyone noticing a pattern here? China and Emerging Markets are moving lower while every other leader is levitating higher.
Sectors on the Move:
Sectors stronger than the SPX for Monday:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +84%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +195%.
- Health Care -- Outperformed the SPX by +10%.
Sectors weaker than the SPX for Monday:
- Financials -- Underperformed the SPX by -17%.
- Industrials -- Underperformed the SPX by -40%.
- Technology -- Underperformed the SPX by -10%.
- Consumer Staples -- Underperformed the SPX by -68%.
- Utilities -- Underperformed the SPX by -88%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Underperformed the SPX by -64%.
In Late Trading:
145 SPX components moved upward and 165 components downward during the after hours with 76 million shares traded.
Tuesday, February 15
Economics
08:30 Retail Sales
08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto
08:30 Empire Manufacturing
08:30 Export Prices ex-ag
08:30 Import Price ex-oil
09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
Australia Reserve Bank Minutes
China CPI
China PPI
Great Britain Nationwide Consumer Confidence
Euro-Zone GDP
Euro-Zone Industrial Production
Great Britain CPI
Great Britain Housing Prices
POMO Schedule
Treasury Coupon Purchase: 02/28/2015-08/15/2016: $5-7 bln
Earnings
Before: ACPW, CPLA, FUN, CTL, CIT, CFX, CYNO, DANG, DGIT, DW, EXAS, FOSL, HEP, JAKK, MMC, PMI, Q, SIRI, SF, UTHR, WFRX, WSO, ZBRA
After: AAN, MDRX, ACC, ACAS, AMMD, ADI, BOBE, CENX, CHR, DELL, DENN, FRT, GPRO, GUID, HWAY, ONE, PODD, JCOM, LOGM, MASI, NBR, MASI, OFIX, PAAS, PRAA, RADS, RCKY, ROVI, RUSHA, SAPE, TSLA, VCLK,
The Commerce Department reports on retail sales before trading starts. Sales are expected to have gained 0.5% in January after having increased 0.6% in December. Sales excluding volatile autos are expected to have ticked up 0.6% after a 0.5% rise the previous month. After the opening bell, the National Association of Homebuilders is scheduled to release its preliminary housing market index for February. The index is forecast to remain at 16. Other economic reports on tap before the market opens include data on export and import prices, along with business inventories.
Trade well!
-Mel