111 SPX Points (Intraday) in 10 Days
by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson
Overnight Japan's quarterly Tankan survey came in better than expected while China's PMI confirmed the "slower growth" theme. And then this morning in Europe, we learned that the PMI's of the Eurozone, UK, Germany, and France show that their economies are not falling off of a cliff. The Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending June 26th rose by 13,000 to 472K - above the consensus for a reading of 455K. Continuing Claims for unemployment for the week ending June 19th were also above consensus at 4.616M vs. expectations for 4.52M. Futures overnight plunged early, rebounded to a high around 7am, then plunged at 8:30 but bounced pointing to a moderately lower open.
The session opened flat, head-faked upward for a few minutes, and then stair-stepped steeply downward for 90 minutes to put the low of the day on the chart at 11:07. The index then took a couple of hour long stair steps upward. While the intraday high was at 2:16, the index was essentially sideways and very choppy for the last three hours. But the session closed about 16 points off the lows.
You can be as bearish as you like longer term, but if you are a trader you need to be able to recognize the characteristics of capitulation and the aftereffects that usually follow. This morning had all the characteristics of traders giving up and exiting; the afternoon was somewhat typical for the follow through, although a stronger close would have been even more typical.
The above chart is a candle chart of where we’ve been since April. We seem to be entrapped in a steep downtrend channel but there are bounces off the bottom trendline, and the previous bounces all have daily candles that are long-tailed hammers such as today’s candle. A bounce upward into the middle of the channel, possibly the 1060 area seems to make technical sense here.
Day Trade Systems Update: (Signals today)
* SSO at: 10:10
* SSO at: 10:28
* SSO at: 10:47
* GDX at: 11:23
* GDX at: 12:34
* SSO at: 1:16
* SSO at: 1:52
* SSO at: 2:56
We focused on ProShares Ultra S&P500 ETF (SSO) and Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) today. Our trading systems had a rough start but we finished strong.
SPX Summary for Thursday, July 01, 2010
190 Advancers/294 Decliners
Today's SPX component winners and losers:
- Largest one day loser is TSO with -5.06%
- Largest three day loser is MU with -16.53%
- Largest five day loser is CLF with -13.22%
- Largest ten day loser is ODP with -22.68%
- Largest one day winner is FTR with 7.26%
- Largest three day winner is DO with 5.71%
- Largest five day winner is DO with 6.66%
- Largest ten day winner is PM with 2.08%
*** SPX Technical Summary ***
The lowest 14 day RSI component is FO; the highest 14 day RSI component is BDK. The average 14 day RSI of all 500 components is 35.
The greatest positive five day momentum component is ETFC; the greatest negative five day momentum component is STR. The average five day momentum of all 500 components is -3.1.
2.60% of the SPX components are giving a crossover Buy signal; 63.00% of the SPX components are giving a Sell signal. This is a 24.2 to 1 ratio of Sell signals over Buy signals.
SPX component signal changes today (evidence of trend):
- From Sell to Neutral: 2 components.
- From Buy to Neutral: 5 components.
- From Neutral to Sell: 74 components.
- From Neutral to Buy: 0 components.
Still all movement towards the Sell side.
The moving averages: SPX NYA
Close 1027.37 6462.13
9 EMA 1029.40 Falling 6466.75 Falling
5 DMA 1050.13 Falling 6590.48 Falling
10 DMA 1074.24 Falling 6735.87 Falling
20 DMA 1079.47 Falling 6749.58 Falling
50 DMA 1115.38 Falling 6972.06 Falling
100 DMA 1132.21 Falling 7151.30 Falling
200 DMA 1111.97 Falling 7119.65 Falling
10 Wk MA 1099.22 Falling
NYSE Summary
On the NYSE 3208 issues were traded with 1261 advancing issues and 1853 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.47 to 1 declining. There were 35 new highs and 151 new lows.
Declining volume was higher at a ratio of 1.35 to 1. The closing TRIN was 0.92 and the final tick was -139.
There is nothing pretty in the breadth numbers. The best that can be said is that it’s a lot better than it was earlier in the day. That negative final tick is still a bit worrisome if you are long. Traders are still selling at the close, although it’s a pretty mild tick.
Evidence of trend:
Relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was 8.11% above the average. Of the last 15 sessions 4 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 16 sessions ended on a positive tick, 4 of last 10.
The 5 day moving average of New Highs is 43 while the 5 day moving average of new lows is 94 and the 10 day moving average of Net Advancing is -661. The Net Advancing data indicates a bearish trend.
Remember: Breadth leads, indices follow. Today, the NYSE Advance/Decline line decreased from 199633 to 199041. This -0.30% decrease came while the SPX was losing -0.33%. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume is 0.59 and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio is 0.65. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume has trended -0.01 over the last three days and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio has trended -0.04 over the last three days.
The NYSE Composite Index lost -0.12% today.
NYSE Statistics:
Absolute Breadth Index: 52.79 up from previous day of 49.68
Cumulative Volume Index: 31,551.67 down from previous day of 32,337.81
High Low Logic Index: 0.80 up from previous day of 0.76
McClellan Oscillator: (199.45) down from previous day of (196.26)
McClellan 10 DMA: (41.75) down from previous day of (3.26)
McClellan Summation Index: (1,560.89) down from previous day of (1,361.44)
% Stocks Above 200 DMA: 36.62 down from previous day of 37.51
% Stocks Above 40 DMA: 24.96 down from previous day of 25.53
New High / New Low Ratio: 19.54 down from previous day of 25.00
26wk New High/Low Ratio: 8.28 down from previous day of 11.98
13wk New High/Low Ratio: 8.04 down from previous day of 10.28
4wk New High/Low Ratio: 9.83 down from previous day of 13.02
Cumulative 4-Week New Hi-Low: 436,397 down from previous day of 437,790
Nasdaq Adv/Decline: 1,246 down from previous day of 1,275
Russell 1000 Advance/ Decline Line: 2,074 down from previous day of 2,103
Russell 2000 Advance/ Decline Line: (2,131) down from previous day of (2,100)
Notes:
Absolute Breadth Index: Low numbers suggest a topping process and high numbers suggest a bottoming process.
Cumulative Volume Index: If this begins to trend down while the averages are trending up, it is a bearish sign. If this begins to trend up while the averages are trending down, it is a bullish sign.
High Low Logic Index: High readings are bearish; low readings are bullish.
McClellan Oscillator: -100 is oversold and +100 is overbought. Also watch for crosses above and below zero.
McClellan Summation Index: Interpreted as bullish or bearish when it crosses over the zero line.
Cumulative 4-Week New Hi-Low: The difference between the number of issues reaching new highs (during a 4-week period) and the number of issues reaching new lows (during the same 4-week period).
Friday, July 2
Economics
08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls -70k cons.
08:30 Unemployment Rate 9.7% cons.
08:30 Hourly Earnings 0.1% cons.
08:30 Average Workweek 34.2 cons.
10:00 Factory Orders -0.6% cons.
05:00 European Union PPI
05:00 European Union Unemployment Rate
Earnings
No releases scheduled.
In addition to the big jobs report, factory orders are due from the Commerce Department. Orders are expected to have fallen 0.7% in May after rising 1.2% in April.
Mel’s Missives from the Matrix:
- Total tick for the day was -51,000 and the average tick for the day was -33. There were 135 ticks greater than 600 and 142 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 22 ticks greater than 1000 and 15 ticks more extreme than -1000.
- The day's range was 22.67 points. The intraday trading range - 9:35 to the close - was 22.12. The 5 DMA of daily range is 22.37.
- Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am volume was 109.06% of the 10 day average. By noon the volume was 158.61% of the 10 day average, and by 2pm volume was 158.82% of the 10 day average.
- The day's volume was 124.1% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 145.2% of the last 10 day average and 137.4% of the previous day’s volume.
- Evidence of the intraday trend: The largest increase in relative volume came between 12:30 and 12:45 when relative volume increased 60.3% while the SPX was rising 0.89%. The largest drop in relative volume came between 1:00 and 1:15 when relative volume dropped -64.3% while the SPX was dropping -0.18%.
- 1% of the SPX stocks closed with two day RSI above 90. 2% closed with RSI above 80. 62% closed with RSI below 20 and 50% closed with RSI below 10.
- 6.8% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 2.8% are above their 10 day average, 6.8% are above their 20 day moving average, 5.2% are above their 50 day moving average, 11.2% are above their 100 day moving average, and 18.4% are above their 150 day moving average.
- 6% of the SPX closed above their most recent previous high.
- 44% of the SPX stocks closed below their most recent previous lows.
- 190 SPX issues advanced and 294 issues declined, a net SPX advance/decline of -104.
- Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 23.6% of the SPX components were in the top half of the range. By noon, 29.6% were in the top half of the range, and by 2pm, 75.6% were in the top half of the range.
- 76.8% of stocks closed in the top half of the day's range. (23% closed in bottom half.)
- 8.8% of stocks closed in the top 10% of the day's range. 23.6% of stocks closed in the top 20% of the day's range.
- 0.6% of stocks closed in the bottom 10% of the day's range. 2.2% of stocks closed in the bottom 20% of the day's range.
- 1.2% of stocks closed within 2% of their 52 week high. 2.2% of stocks closed within 5% of their 52 week high.
- 72.4% of stocks closed within 50% of their 52 week low. 44.4% of stocks closed within 25% of their 52 week low.
- 7.6% of stocks closed within ¼% of their high for the day.
- 0.4% of stocks closed within ¼% of their low for the day.
- Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 37.4% of the SPX components were up since the open. By noon, 16.6% were up since the open, and by 2pm, 38.2% were up since the open.
- 38.4% of the SPX closed up from the previous close; 37.8% closed higher than the open.
- Sectors stronger than the SPX for Thursday:
- Consumer Staples -- Outperformed the SPX by +53%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Outperformed the SPX by +115%.
- Sectors weaker than the SPX for Thursday:
- Basic Materials -- Underperformed the SPX by -23%.
- Energy -- Underperformed the SPX by -3%.
- Financials -- Underperformed the SPX by -54%.
- Industrials -- Underperformed the SPX by -14%.
- Technology -- Underperformed the SPX by -6%.
- Utilities -- Underperformed the SPX by -13%.
- Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -52%.
- The $SOX index strength was stronger relative to the SPX Thursday by 0.56%.
- The XLF underperformed the SPX by -0.54% Thursday.
- The 2 Day RSI of the SPX is 1. The Dow RSI is 0, the NASDAQ is 0 and the Russell is 4.
- Over the last four sessions, the average session closed 32.38% of the range above the low. Thursday closed at 71.9% of the daily range.
- Upside momentum moved upward Thursday, from Wednesday’s -4.55 to today’s -3.1. The ratio of SPX components giving a crossover sell signal compared to buy signals increased to the sell side to S 24.23 to 1.
- The ISEE Equity 10 day moving average Thursday was 154.2. The lowest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 136.6 on 06/14/10and the highest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 249.3 on 04/15/10.
- 204 SPX components moved upward and 182 components downward during the after hours with 167 million shares traded.
Trade 'em well on Friday everyone!
-Mel
