Santa Comes to Broad and Wall
by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson
The week opened with a gap up, a small gap, but once again another Monday morning gap upward. The gap was closed by 10:30 after which the market snoozed in a one point range for more than three hours before taking a nice “plunge” downward just after 2:00. This move downward was three points, which on a day like this seemed large. But after 2:30 the index began making its way back upward. The final 30 minutes saw the session once again close bullishly. The index closed right where it opened at 9:30.
Today’s session was yet another example of the low volume levitation that we’ve seen plenty of. There was no economic news of substance and no significant volume but the SPX managed a 0.12% gain.
For Tuesday, our model is calling for a pullback. Seasonality suggests more sideways/upward drift. My instinct is to expect at least one more day similar to today. But the economic news at 9am and 10am may well drive the market more than anything else.
Tuesday, December 29
Economics
09:00 CaseShiller 20 City -7.30% cons.
10:00 Consumer Confidence 53.0 cons.
Auctions
11:30 4-Week Bill Auction
01:00 5-Yr Note Auction
The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index of home prices in major metropolitan areas for October is due shortly after the market opens. At 10 a.m. ET, the Conference Board will release a reading on consumer confidence for December.
Mel’s Random Hits:
• Total tick for the day was +136,000. The second hour was negative as well as an hour from 1:45 to 2:45.
• The day's range was 6.87 points. Half of that range was between 2:00 and 2:30.
• The day's volume was 48.4% of the average 2009 daily volume. The volume was 52% of the last 10 day average. The volume was the lowest full day volume of the year, with the exception of the day before Thanksgiving.
• 27% of the SPX stocks closed with two day RSI above 90. 40% closed with RSI above 80. 6% closed with RSI below 20 and 1% closed with RSI below 10.
• 74% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 82% are above their 10 day average, and 84% are above their 20 day moving average.
• 22% of the SPX stocks closed below their most recent previous lows.
• 24% of the SPX closed above their most recent previous high.
• 44.6% of stocks closed in the top half of the day's range. (55.4% closed in bottom half.)
• 12.6% of stocks closed in the bottom 20% of the day's range.
• 14.0% of stocks closed in the top 10% of the day's range.
• 31.4% of stocks closed within 2% of their 52 week high.
• 23.0% of stocks closed within 50% of their 52 week low.
• 25.4% of stocks closed within ¼% of their high for the day.
• 5.4% of stocks closed within ¼% of their low for the day.
• 47.8% of the SPX closed up from the previous close; 39.0% closed higher than the open.
• Sectors weaker than the SPX for the day: Basic materials, Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary
• Sectors stronger than the SPX for the day: Energy, Utilities, Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Staples
• The $SOX index strength was weaker than the SPX today.
• 11 of last 13 sessions have closed green.
• The 2 Day RSI of the SPX is 96. The Dow RSI is 96, NASDAQ is 98 and Russell 84. These numbers are overbought but another day to the upside is not out of the question.
• SPX components moved upward slightly during the after hours.
Have a great Tuesday.
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"Mel"
ETF’s we trade:
Ultra S&P500 ProShares (NYSE: SSO)
Ultra Dow30 ProShares (NYSE: DDM)
Ultra QQQ ProShares (NYSE: QLD)
PS UTLRSHRT QQQ (NYSE: QID)
UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (NYSE: SDS)
UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (NYSE: DXD)
PowerShares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ)
Direxion Daily Small Cp Bear 3X (NYSE:TZA)
Direxion Daily Small Cp Bull 3X (NYSE:TNA)
