Short for Monday?
by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson
A very abbreviated weekend report today. But there are some noteworthy stats that warrant an update, however brief.
The number of SPX components over their 20 DMA has reached 81%. Anytime this number reaches above 85% is a clear overbought signal, so we are really at that point. The four day average has been that we have closed at 83% of the daily range; a clear overbought signal. SPX momentum upward suggests we are topping. The three day average of daily range has contracted to below 10 (9.56.) This suggests a topping action.
Volume on both Thursday and Friday was below four billion shares; the first such consecutive days since before New Year’s Day. This also suggests a topping pattern and a lack of conviction for buyers.
The combination of all of my indicators has resulted in my most trusted and slowest swing signal moving to Sell for Monday. If we are in a situation similar to late July, we will continue upward regardless of overbought conditions. But if you believe this is not a situation similar to late July, when earnings were blowing out expectations, then now is a time to watch carefully and consider short-side positions.
Have a great Sunday and Monday and I expect to return Monday evening with regular reports.
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"Mel"
ETF’s we trade:
Ultra S&P500 ProShares (NYSE: SSO)
Ultra Dow30 ProShares (NYSE: DDM)
Ultra QQQ ProShares (NYSE: QLD)
PS UTLRSHRT QQQ (NYSE: QID)
UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (NYSE: SDS)
UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (NYSE: DXD)
PowerShares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ)
Direxion Daily Small Cp Bear 3X (NYSE:TZA)
Direxion Daily Small Cp Bull 3X (NYSE:TNA)
