Six Consecutive Up Days for the Dow
Market Recap:
With easing tensions in Egypt, a total of four new merger and acquisition deals, as well as higher markets in Europe, stock futures were on an modestly higher path as the week began. There was no economic data to review before the bell this morning but we did get the numbers on Consumer Credit at 3:00 pm.
The session began with a small gap higher and the bulls never looked back. Sellers were nonexistent as the index climbed steadily throughout the morning putting the high of the day on the chart at 11:42 am. The afternoon had a slight negative bias as the index gave back five points before bouncing into the close to finish in the middle of the intraday range.
Checking our Market Leaders board shows almost everything close higher today with the notable exception of the chip makers (SOX). This was eye-catching because SOX was up over 1% before a mid day reversal to finish lower. This could be a canary in the coal mine for tomorrow in the general market.
Notice a couple of enhancements to the Market Leaders board as the closing percentage and intraday range percentage have been added to the display.
Market Trend: Nine Sectors Report
Turning to our Nine Sectors Report this evening we find several changes, some which were surprising. Both Materials and Energy move from Buy to Neutral while the Financials and Industrials move from Neutral to Buy. Consumer Discretionary moves from Neutral to Buy. Our Nine Sectors signal remains stuck in Neutral.
Seasonality and history come together to suggest that the rest of this week is down. But this market has been repeatedly shrugging off any negative seasonality and history while simply moving higher.
Volume & Breadth Indicators
For the SPX Index there were 346 components advancing and 138 components declining. On the NYSE 3,140 issues were traded with 2,093 advancing issues and 956 retreating issues, a ratio of 2.19 to one advancing. There were 343 new highs and 12 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 222 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 10 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 400. The Net Advancing data indicates a bullish trend.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 3.08 to one. The closing TRIN was 0.71 and the final tick was 884. The five day average of TRIN is .92 and the ten day average of TRIN is 1.11. The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.58% today while the SPX gained 0.62%.
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -9.62% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 12 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 21 sessions ended on a positive tick, 9 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 85.9% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 88.2% of the last 10 day average and 102.1% of the previous day’s volume.
All the NYSE breadth data above is looking bullish. Volume was a bit light today but otherwise everything looks strong.
Total tick for the day was 143,000 and the average tick for the day was 92. There were 65 ticks greater than 600 and 27 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 5 ticks greater than 1000 and no ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional accumulation. One note regarding the ticks today: All but one of the bullish extreme ticks came in the morning and all of the bearish ticks came in the afternoon.
There was no discernable volume pattern today but volume was fairly low. Checking the Nightly Breadth Indicators we see things are fairly mixed, a bit surprising after a strong session. One thing that continues to catch our attention is the New High/New Low ratios which continue to fall.
Moving Average and Support/Resistance Indicators:
73.4% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 79% are above their 10 day average, 76.4% are above their 20 day moving average, 78.8% are above their 50 day moving average, and 89.6% are above their 200 day moving average.
There were no significant moving average crossovers today. But notice that all of the moving averages, short and long-term are rising.
Sectors on the Move:
Sectors stronger than the SPX for Monday:
- Financials -- Outperformed the SPX by +84%.
- Industrials -- Outperformed the SPX by +32%.
- Utilities -- Outperformed the SPX by +3%.
Sectors weaker than the SPX for Monday:
- Basic Materials -- Underperformed the SPX by -8%.
- Energy -- Underperformed the SPX by -4%.
- Technology -- Underperformed the SPX by -13%.
- Consumer Staples -- Underperformed the SPX by -31%.
- Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -74%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Underperformed the SPX by -9%.
In Late Trading:
196 SPX components moved upward and 130 components downward during the after hours with 210 million shares traded.
Tuesday, February 8
Economics
No US Economic Releases
Britain RICS House Price Balance
German Retail Sales
Japan Economy Watchers
Swiss Unemployment Rate
German Industrial Production
POMO Schedule
Treasury Coupon Purchase: 8/15/2028-11/15/2040: $1.5-2.5 bln
Earnings
Before: ACM, AGCO, ALLT, AHII, MT, ATRO, AVP, BZH, BLC, BR, CNC, CHD, CVH, ELNK, FLO, GET, HGG, LIOX, MAC, MLM, NYX, PTRY, PIKE, PCH, SLE, SVVS, SRX, TIN, WMG
After: ANDE, ATML, ATO, AXS, BWLD, CBL, CRL, STV, CSGS, DCT, PROJ, DEI, DSCM, ETM, XIDE, GHDX, GIL, GCOM, HNI, ILMN, KNXA, KFRC, MOTR, MFE, OPEN, PPS, PPDI, RAH, RNR, RENT, SWIR, SF, TTWO, TIE, DIS, XL
Have a profitable Tuesday.
-Mel