Slightly More Volatility Today
by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson
As we woke this morning, Asian markets were higher while European markets were only fractionally above breakeven. Futures pointed to a modestly higher open.
The session opened with a nominal gap upward and spiked to a high of the day at 10:02. The next hour gave back most of the gains and 11:00 rolled around with the SPX sitting just about where it opened before a cascade of sellers took the index to the low of the session at 11:24. From the low of the day the index traded in a two wave ascent bullishly into the final hour but a late sell off brought the index back just barely above positive territory.
One important thing to notice about today's action: Declining volume was much higher than advancing volume on all the major exchanges. Breadth is lagging here.
Abbreviated report tonight due to ongoing computer hardware issues.
Day Trade Systems Update: (Signals today)
* Bounce Alert at: 11:10
* Scalp Long at: 11:33
* Scalp Short at: 12:49
* Bounce Alert at: 1:28
* Scalp Long at: 1:48
* Pullback Alert at: 2:42
* Scalp Short at: 3:07
SPX Summary for Tuesday, March 30, 2010
270 Advancers/219 Decliners
Today's SPX component winners and losers:
Largest one day loser is TIE with -2.85%
Largest three day loser is PLD with -5.22%
Largest five day loser is GENZ with -11.27%
Largest ten day loser is CNX with -13.25%
Largest one day winner is WFR with 5.87%
Largest three day winner is FSLR with 9.27%
Largest five day winner is FSLR with 9.30%
Largest ten day winner is TIE with 16.13%
*** SPX Technical Summary ***
The lowest 14 day RSI component is BDK; the highest 14 day RSI component is RX. The average 14 day RSI of all 500 components is 60.
The greatest positive five day momentum component is FSLR; the greatest negative five day momentum component is GENZ. The average five day momentum of all 500 components is -0.14.
47.00% of the SPX components are giving a crossover Buy signal; 14.80% of the SPX components are giving a Sell signal. This is a 3.2 to 1 ratio of Buy signals over Sell signals.
SPX component signal changes today (evidence of trend):
From Sell to Neutral: 4 components.
From Buy to Neutral: 47 components.
From Neutral to Sell: 14 components.
From Neutral to Buy: 12 components.
The moving averages:
Close 1173.27
9 EMA 1166.50 Rising
10 DMA 1167.68 Rising
20 DMA 1154.58 Rising
50 DMA 1119.29 Rising
100 DMA 1114.63 Rising
200 DMA 1058.56 Rising
10 Wk MA 1122.01 Rising
NYSE Summary
On the NYSE 3185 issues were traded with 1563 advancing issues and 1492 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.05 to 1 advancing. There were 223 new highs and 7 new lows.
Declining volume was higher at a ratio of 1.41 to 1. The closing TRIN was 1.47 and the final tick was 369.
Evidence of trend:
Relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -13.79% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 3 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 26 sessions ended on a positive tick, 7 of last 10.
Remember: Breadth leads, indices follow. Today, the NYSE Advance/Decline line increased from 204406 to 204477. This 0.03% increase came while the SPX was gaining 0%. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume is 1.01 and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio is 1.12. The 10 day moving ratio of positive volume has trended -0.06 over the last three days and the 10 day moving Advance/Decline ratio has trended 0.02 over the last three days.
The NYSE Composite Index lost -0.06% today.
Wednesday, March 31
Economics
08:15 ADP Employment Change 45k cons.
09:45 Chicago PMI 61.0 cons.
10:00 Factory Orders 0.5% cons.
10:30 Crude Inventories
02:45 France PPI
03:50 Germany Unemployment Rate
04:00 Italian CPI
06:00 EU HICP Flash
06:00 EU Unemployment Rate
08:30 Canadian Monthly GDP
Earnings
Before: APWR, AYI, BPZ, DG, FTK, LNN, OSTK, RAD, HEAT, UNF
After: ANGO, DMAN, GPN, BLUD, MOS, OMER, RIMM, PECN, RINO, XRTX
Speeches
12:30 Dennis Lockhart
Payroll services firm ADP is expected to report that employers in the private sector added 40,000 jobs to their payrolls in March after cutting 20,000 in February. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas releases its report on announced layoffs in March.
Also to report, the Chicago PMI, a regional reading on manufacturing, and the weekly oil inventory report from the government. Research in Motion (RIMM) reports quarterly earnings after the close of trade. The blackberry maker is expected to have earned $1.28 per share versus 90 cents a year ago.
Mel’s Missives from the Matrix:
Total tick for the day was -15,000. There were 68 ticks greater than 600 and 88 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 0 ticks greater than 1000 and 4 ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional distribution.
The day's range was 8.91 points. The 5 DMA of daily range is 11.03.
Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am volume was 76.74% of the 10 day average. By noon the volume was 89.07% of the 10 day average, and by 2pm volume was 88.65% of the 10 day average.
The day's volume was 80% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 86.2% of the last 10 day average and 92.7% of the previous day’s volume.
12% of the SPX stocks closed with two day RSI above 90. 28% closed with RSI above 80. 12% closed with RSI below 20 and 6% closed with RSI below 10.
65.8% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 61.6% are above their 10 day average, and 74.8% are above their 20 day moving average.
25% of the SPX closed above their most recent previous high.
15% of the SPX stocks closed below their most recent previous lows.
270 SPX issues advanced and 219 issues declined, a net SPX advance/decline of 51.
Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 74.2% of the SPX components were in the top half of the range. By noon, 29.2% were in the top half of the range, and by 2pm, 37.8% were in the top half of the range.
50.2% of stocks closed in the top half of the day's range. (49.8% closed in bottom half.)
7% of stocks closed in the top 10% of the day's range. 16.6% of stocks closed in the top 20% of the day's range.
5% of stocks closed in the bottom 10% of the day's range. 13% of stocks closed in the bottom 20% of the day's range.
29.4% of stocks closed within 2% of their 52 week high. 56.8% of stocks closed within 5% of their 52 week high.
38% of stocks closed within 50% of their 52 week low. 9.2% of stocks closed within 25% of their 52 week low.
15.8% of stocks closed within ¼% of their high for the day.
10.6% of stocks closed within ¼% of their low for the day.
Evidence of the intraday trend: At 10am, 70.4% of the SPX components were up since the open. By noon, 40% were up since the open, and by 2pm, 44.2% were up since the open.
51.4% of the SPX closed up from the previous close; 47.2% closed higher than the open.
Sectors stronger than the SPX for Tuesday:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +14%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +12%.
- Industrials -- Outperformed the SPX by +15%.
- Technology -- Outperformed the SPX by +43%.
- Consumer Staples -- Outperformed the SPX by +3%.
Sectors weaker than the SPX for Tuesday:
- Financials -- Underperformed the SPX by -69%.
- Utilities -- Underperformed the SPX by -27%.
- Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -13%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Underperformed the SPX by -13%.
The $SOX index strength was stronger relative to the SPX Tuesday by 0.68%.
The XLF underperformed the SPX by -0.69% Tuesday.
The 2 Day RSI of the SPX is 86. The Dow RSI is 92, the NASDAQ is 83 and the Russell is 74.
Over the last four sessions, the average session closed 42.78% of the range above the low. Tuesday closed at 48.8% of the daily range.
Upside momentum decreased Tuesday, from Monday’s 0.48 to today’s -0.14. The ratio of SPX components giving a crossover buy signal compared to sell signals also dropped to B 3.18 to 1.
The ISEE Equity 10 day moving average Tuesday was 194.6. The lowest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 141.5 on 06/29/09 and the highest 10 day average in the last 52 weeks was 207.3 on 01/19/10.
Good trading on Wednesday everyone!
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"Mel"
