Surprises will come on the downside
by Gary Dean
From last night's update: “Mel” did the write up on Thursday.
Review of previous night's notes and today's tape: The indexes took it on the chin Friday and I don’t believe the bears are finished yet. I am expecting the decline to last a lot longer than the typical 3-5 day pullbacks we have seen in the last 7 months and it could turn into something much worse if the bears start getting aggressive.
With the clobbering that the indexes took on Friday, most financial publishers are anticipating a nice relief rally to hit in the coming hours. It would fit the profile if we do see some type of bounce Monday, but surprises will continue to be made on the downside. Those downside surprises will most likely come at the hands of the rising dollar and could cause very swift and powerful moves lower like we witnessed on Friday.
The dollar short trade is huge and I do not believe we have even seen the true short covering in the dollar start. It is bubbling and every pullback will most likely be used for shorts to cover. That is one of the reasons I believe the indexes will remain under some pressure. But we are very oversold here and throwing new money on the short side is dangerous.
Bottom line: The indexes are very oversold, but surprises will come to the downside.
Mel’s Corner: This is going to be a new addition to our site for any members looking for the next day’s trend through a unique system designed by Mel.
Numbers range from -20 thru 20. -3 thru 3 are "null" signals.
Negative numbers are bearish, positive numbers are bullish for the next trading day.
Mel’s trend finder indicator gave a +20 reading tonight, which is an extremely strong buy is reading for the markets on Thursday.
Sentiment Indicator: (contrarian indicators) The short term sentiment indicator (1-3 days) is in extreme bearish territory. Intermediate term sentiment indicator (5-10 days) is in extreme bearish territory. The longer term sentiment indicator (3-6 weeks) is in bearish territory.
Bottom line: The indexes bounced off the extreme bearish readings on Thursday. Will they be able to make a similar move? I wouldn’t make to big of a bet on that move.
"Smart Money" Trend The smart money was on the buy side today, but they have built up enough selling volume over the last 7 months to keep the tape heading lower.
For Tomorrow: Short term support sits at 1030-1020-1015. Resistance pivots are at 1042-1041-1051.
Gary
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Ultra S&P500 ProShares (NYSE: SSO)
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PS UTLRSHRT QQQ (NYSE: QID)
UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (NYSE: SDS)
UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (NYSE: DXD)
PowerShares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ)
Direxion Daily Small Cp Bear 3X (NYSE:TZA)
Direxion Daily Small Cp Bull 3X (NYSE:TNA)
