The Great American Melt-Up Continues
Market Recap:
Futures moved a bit lower after the government reported a slightly higher than expected gain in consumer prices. Asia closed green while European markets were mixed as the open approached.
The session began with a small gap lower and then, what a shock, quickly put the low of the day on the chart just six minutes in. Buyers again bought the dip and the index simply ascended the rest of the day. In a normal market you'd have to be thinking, time out and time for consolidation and retracement. This market is not normal; we are on a one-way mission upward. The Fed continues to pour billions into the economy and it has to go somewhere. With interest rates near zero, the only viable option is for this money to flow into the equities. We are seeing evidence every day.
Morning lows and late afternoon highs; the same nightly summary can be reused repeatedly as the Great American Melt-up continues onward.
Checking in with our Market Leaders board today we find a mixed board with the Financials (XLF) and Germany closing lower. But six of the ten leaders once again closed at 52 week closing highs.
SPX big winners were NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) 10.11%, Williams Companies Inc (WMB) 7.64%, and Cliffs Nat'l Resources Inc (CLF) 6.53%. SPX big losers were Netapp Inc (NTAP) -6.94%, Ecolab Inc (ECL) -5.44%, and O'reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) -5.32%.
SPX five day big winners are Family Dollar Stores Inc (FDO) 20.11%, Tesoro Corp (TSO) 20.08%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 14.84%. SPX five day big losers are Expedia Inc (EXPE) -18.22%, Netapp Inc (NTAP) -9.53%, and Masco Corp (MAS) -9.15%.
Market Trend: Nine Sectors Report
Turning to our Nine Sectors Reports after today's action we have two changes as the Financials move from Buy to Neutral and Consumer Staples moves from Neutral to Buy. This is a wash and we'll hold the Nine Sectors signal on Sell.
But Friday is options expiration before a three day weekend so all bets are off. We expect to see a lower close tomorrow but Tuesday should be an up day.
Volume & Breadth Indicators
For the SPX Index there were 318 components advancing and 162 components declining. On the NYSE 3,158 issues were traded with 1,907 advancing issues and 1,150 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.66 to one advancing. There were 365 new highs and 9 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 280 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 11 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 475. The Net Advancing data indicates a bullish trend.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 2.2 to one. The closing TRIN was 0.75 and the final tick was 187. The five day average of TRIN is .92 and the ten day average of TRIN is .95. The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.52% today while the SPX gained 0.31%.
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -14.12% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 5 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 24 sessions ended on a positive tick, 9 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 84.6% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 93.4% of the last 10 day average and 87.9% of the previous day’s volume.
All the NYSE statistics are bullish. New Highs blew away New Lows. Advancing volume was stronger than Advancing Issues. And the NYSE Composite Index outperformed the SPX. A very strong session that gained only four points.
Total tick for the day was 278,000 and the average tick for the day was 180. There were 44 ticks greater than 600 and zero ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and no ticks more extreme than -1000. Today was one of the most one-sided days for the tick within recent memory. Bears took the day off.
Intraday volume patterns aren't clear today but there was a volume spike with the late morning up move. Looking at the Nightly Breadth Indicators is less clear tonight than last night as the New High/New Low ratios are lower after todays up session. But overall, the indicators remain bullish looking.
Moving Average and Support/Resistance Indicators:
70.4% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 78.6% are above their 10 day average, 84% are above their 20 day moving average, 82% are above their 50 day moving average, and 90.6% are above their 200 day moving average.
There were no significant moving average crossovers today.
Sectors on the Move:
Sectors stronger than the SPX for Thursday:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +61%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +69%.
- Consumer Staples -- Outperformed the SPX by +38%.
- Health Care -- Outperformed the SPX by +13%.
Sectors weaker than the SPX for Thursday:
- Financials -- Underperformed the SPX by -42%.
- Industrials -- Underperformed the SPX by -6%.
- Technology -- Underperformed the SPX by -10%.
- Utilities -- Underperformed the SPX by -11%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Underperformed the SPX by -27%.
In Late Trading:
208 SPX components moved upward and 129 components downward during the after hours with 64 million shares traded.
Friday, February 18
Economics
No U.S. economic releases
German Producers Prices
Great Britain Retail Sales
Canada CPI
POMO Schedule
Treasury Coupon Purchase: 8/31/2013-2/15/2018: $5-7 bln
Earnings
Before: CRMT, AGP, BRC, BAM, CPN, CPB, DLR, EGO, ELT, GNRC, HS, HMSY, LNCE, PGN, UPL, YGE
No market-moving economic reports are scheduled to be released.
Friday before a long weekend. Enjoy!
-Mel