Avi Gilburt launched ElliottWaveTrader (www.elliottwavetrader.net) in September 2011 to provide Elliott Wave analysis for traders looking for market directional guidance. Covered markets and indices include the emini S&P 500, gold (GLD), silver (SLV), oil (USO), the Volatility Index (VIX) and U.S. dollar (USD). ElliottWaveTrader also features member-driven analysis and trade alerts on individual stocks. Gilburt is a lawyer and accountant by training who emphasizes using "measurement over emotion" in reading Elliott Wave counts and analyzing charts. He is a frequent contributor to Seeking Alpha, MarketWatch, TheStreet.com, DecisionPoint, and The Technical Trader with Harry Boxer, who calls Gilburt "the best Elliott Wave analyst I've seen!"
USO's Bearish Count Pushed to Limit April 17, 2016
Some have said that when I discuss an alternative count, that is usually the point in time when the market has pushed the primary count far enough and it then confirms. Well, this past week, the market pushed our primary bearish count in the USO to the point that I began to “consider” that the lows have been seen in the complex. But, it has still not invalidated that count. Rather, the market came within 6 cents of the top of the prior high, and then turned down.
Signs Of a Global Melt-Up April 12, 2016
At the start of 2016, as the markets were heading down to the 1800’s, I was warning that a major bottoming in assets and markets across the world may be setting up. And, with today’s invalidation of the bearish pattern in silver, with the potential invalidation of the USO possibly about to be seen, we are seeing more signs of this potential. Meanwhile, the SPX continues in its wave iv.
Oil (USO) Heading Lower April 4, 2016
As I noted earlier this week to our members in our trading room at Elliottwavetrader.net, the set up in the USO has been developing which could take the USO down hard in the heart of a 3rd wave with a (1)(2)i-ii structure, which catches many by surprise. As long as we remain below 9.70 and then break below 9.20 it suggests that the heart of a 3rd wave down is going to take hold, and take us towards the 8 region in wave iii of (3) down.
USO May Have A Top March 20, 2016
As many have become convinced of the bullish nature of the oil market, I think we may have the first indications of a top. So, let’s go through what we need to see confirm that. First, as we have been discussing in the past, the .382 retracement of wave iii down is the common target for a wave iv rally, which triggers the reversal that initiates wave v down. This past week, the market struck the .382 retracement of wave iii down to the penny, and then reversed.
USO Staying the Course March 14, 2016
Many have begun to view this rally in oil as the start of something quite bullish. I am not one of them. Rather, with the market bottoming in what looks best as a 3 wave structure, I believe that this rally is only a c-wave of a 4th wave rally, which will ultimately lead us to lower lows.
USO Finally Makes A Choice March 7, 2016
With the USO slowly pushing higher over the past week, it is starting to make it a bit more clear that it is still stretching for the wave iv target we have kept on this chart for weeks. While the pattern off the recent lows has been very overlapping, it may still attempt to stretch a bit further towards our box, with a chance it may even attempt to strike the higher end of our target before this y-wave of wave IV completes.
USO Continues To See Sloppy Action February 29, 2016
The US Oil Fund EFT (USO) has had setup after setup to take us back to the higher target for a wave iv flat pattern, but has failed each and every time. While it is still “possible” we may get that 4th wave higher yet, the last failure on Friday has made it seem a little less likely. Moreover, what has become more of a possibility is a pattern pointed out to me by one of our members. I have added this potential to the USO chart as a running triangle for wave IV.
No Top Yet, But We Seem Close February 23, 2016
With the SPX hitting the minimum target for our (c) wave of 4, the futures market does have a completed pattern in place for this 5 wave (c) wave. However, in the SPX, it does seem that we could see extensions higher tomorrow, as long as we hold over 1936SPX. This still leave the door open for higher targets in our resistance box, but trading for higher highs now adds significant risk to any short term positions.
The Job of a C Wave February 16, 2016
In our case, the job of the c-wave in this 4th wave is to convince the market that the coast is clear and the bottom is in place. While there is a possibility that is, in fact, the case, especially based upon the IWM, there is no reliably clean bottoming count in the DOW or the SPX.
Clear Pressure Remains Down February 2, 2016
While the bounce we saw off the 1910 support level in the S&P 500 earlier today is a bit small to solidly view it as a wave 2 retrace in this downtrend, a break of 1895 would make it likely that it is exactly what it was. Support below that is the 1880 level, and below that we are heading down to the 1835-1850 SPX region, which may still be an expanded (b) wave, as presented earlier. But, for now, it is clear that pressure will remain down.
Final 5th Wave of Oil's Drop? January 18, 2016
Last week, I was contemplating whether the US Oil Fund ETF (USO) is in its final 5th wave or if there is still one more 4thwave rise to be seen before the final 5th wave to complete this longer term correction. This past week, the market has extended down to that downside target. This provided more likelihood that this could be all of the final 5th wave in this drop.
What Our Analysts Are Saying About the Market January 13, 2016
Avi Gilburt: I just want to point out that the path we laid out for the week, which has been quite accurate, still tells us that we cannot even consider any upside move until at least 1931SPX - the 1.00 extension - is breached, with follow through over 1952SPX. Only if such a break out is seen can we buy into the purple triangle. Until then, we are still dealing with the red count, which, at this point in time, when it completes wave 3 should see a wave 4 rally back to 1931SPX.
Market Entering Bottoming Phase? January 10, 2016
Here are highlights from Avi Gilburt's wave analysis on the S&P 500, metals and oil. S&P 500: There are many indications that the next few months can not only see a major bottoming to the US equity markets, but there are many emerging markets which are tracing out long term bottoms within that expected time frame, along with a potential long term bottoming in oil and metals.
Miners & Metals Mid-Week Update October 22, 2015
While not much has really changed in the GLD and silver, the GDX has given us a little different pattern. But, before I go into my analysis, I want to make it clear that I still have nothing that suggests that the low is in for any of these 3 charts. Moreover, a top can make itself evident at any time now, even though I do “expect” at least one more rally. But, I am quite cautious about another rally.
What the DXY Can Tell Us About the SPX August 30, 2015
I am going to say something that may seem quite counter-intuitive to most, but the chart and market action is quite clear on this matter: Both the dollar and the equity markets have been moving in lockstep in the same general direction for quite some time. Yes, I know many have written through the years about the dollar and the equity market moving in opposite directions.
Door Open to Sub-1900 August 24, 2015
Due to the size of the extensions overnight, if 1914ES breaks, it opens the door to sub 1900 level in the SPX, and it still may only be wave 3 of this move off the highs. Clearly, resistance levels are dropped along with it. And, once we have a bottom in place, we can pinpoint the .382 retracement a lot more accurately. But, again, this drop overnight clearly has to open the door to considerations that wave 4 takes us down to the 1740 region.
Buy Gold On Strong Dollar or Buy On Weak Dollar? March 28, 2015
Since 2009, market participants have been expecting the demise of the US dollar. For years we were told that quantitative easing was going to cause pain to all those who dare hold dollars. And, for years, we were also told that the same quantitative easing was going to cause a parabolic rise to metals. It is now six years after our first round of quantitative easing, and how have most fared in following the common themes within the dollar and gold markets? Well, not too well.
Wave iii Rally? February 12, 2015
With the market pullback under 2064ES last night, it does place questions into my mind is this is indeed the wave (iii) in green break out. Ideally, it should not have broken below that. In order for me to view this as wave (iii), ideally want to see us holding over 2071ES and going directly to the prior all-time highs today, and then gapping over that tomorrow.
Has USO Finally Bottomed? January 20, 2015
A week ago , I noted to members that "as long as USO remains below the 19.05 level, we have another extension that points us towards the mid 16 region before this bottom is found." And, as we now know, the market maintained corrective action below the resistance region, and marked a bottom, pre-market, at 16.77 before it began a strong rally. Yet, amazingly, I cannot say that a bottom has been struck just yet.
Final Decline Phase for Precious Metals November 2, 2014
While I was uncertain about GLD’s downside set up last weekend, silver was a lot cleaner. As the week progressed, the downside set up in GLD did become a little clearer, and we were able to set resistance levels and move them down as the metals continued to maintain downside pressure throughout the week.
Has the Breakdown in Gold Been Averted for Now? September 28, 2014
While the GLD had the set up to break below the 2013 lows early this past week, and chose to invalidate that set up, it is starting to become more likely that the earliest we will see such a break down would be several weeks away. The reason I say this is based upon our silver chart, which has served us well over the last few months. And, at this time, silver has what looks to be an almost full pattern into the bottom of wave (v) of 3 of iii, which came within .05 of our ideal target.
Will Gold Ever Break Down? September 21, 2014
Yes, silver has finally done it. It has broken strongly below support, and if I was just looking at silver alone, I would assume that we are on our way to a final bottom in metals in the October-November time frame, with an ideal timing of Thanksgiving. However, silver does not live in a vacuum, and neither do I. So, I clearly have to view gold’s action this past week as well, and it does make me scratch my head a bit in wonderment.
Still Bearish on Metals, but Watching for Possible Reversal September 7, 2014
Silver was the clear “tell” to last week’s decline. And, at this point in time, it is still set up for further bearishness. But, the extent of that bearishness is still at question. With the amount of positive divergences I am seeing on all time frames on silver, I would ordinarily be going long in this region. However, since I do not have a solid bottom in place, nor do I have a solid completed bottoming structure on this decline YET, I am trying to be patient.
Silver & Gold: Bearish but Becoming Skeptical September 1, 2014
Most times I am able to provide you with high probability turning points in metals, which often are struck to the penny, thereafter seeing the expected turn in the market. Other times I have to take a more general approach, since the smaller degree perspectives are not clearly evident to me. Today, I find myself in the latter, rather than the former, perspective.
USO: No Signal Yet For a-wave Bottom August 24, 2014
With the USO seeing a rebound last week, but maintaining below the 35.80 resistance noted last weekend, we have subdivided lower in a rather sloppy wave structure. At this time, I still cannot confidently state that the a-wave to the downside has completed, and think there is still some more weakness that can be seen. For now, I will look to the 35.
Interrelationships of Dollar, Metals & ES July 27, 2014
With the way different markets have been moving together and others seemingly inverse each other of late, I wanted to take the time to write a “linear” perspective of what I think we can see if such linear relationships continue, which is also supported by the various patterns I am seeing. But, remember, I am attempting to apply some recent linear perspectives to a non-linear market, which sometimes winds up in “defraculation,” as el Hombre likes to put it.
Last week, I began to lay the ground work in explaining that the short side to the market is probably going to get more complicated, as the easy money on the short side has been made from the market top we identified at 133 down to our last target of 119 in GLD. But, no matter what happens over the next month or two, I want to make one thing clear.
Have We Begun The Larger Correction? March 13, 2014
With the drop Wednesday morning below 1860ES, we were able to find support at the midline level Fib level I discussed in the Weekend Update at 1853ES. While I ideally wanted to see us heading down to the 1845ES region, the 1.618 extension down, to develop an impulsive wave off the highs, it is clear that this is not going to be the case, and the market is going to make this much harder for us in not providing a clear 5 wave structure off the high.
Much Lower Levels Have Become Likely in USO January 12, 2014
Two weeks ago, we knew we had a high probability top in place in the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO). Our question only centered around whether it was a (b) wave top or an impulsive 5th wave top. With the break down this past week, the market resoundingly told us that no impulsive structure to the upside was going to be tolerated.
USO Almost at the Bottom November 10, 2013
As we have been expecting lower levels to be struck in the US Oil Fund ETF (USO), it does not seem reasonable to expect more than one more decline at this, at least based upon the extended count and the MACD set up. While one may consider that the last low was the bottom for this drop, when I look a bit more closely at the 13 minute chart for the USO, it would seem like the market is setting up for one more 5 wave decline which lines up very nicely with our next lower target in the 33.15-33.20 region.