Avi Gilburt launched ElliottWaveTrader (www.elliottwavetrader.net) in September 2011 to provide Elliott Wave analysis for traders looking for market directional guidance. Covered markets and indices include the emini S&P 500, gold (GLD), silver (SLV), oil (USO), the Volatility Index (VIX) and U.S. dollar (USD). ElliottWaveTrader also features member-driven analysis and trade alerts on individual stocks. Gilburt is a lawyer and accountant by training who emphasizes using "measurement over emotion" in reading Elliott Wave counts and analyzing charts. He is a frequent contributor to Seeking Alpha, MarketWatch, TheStreet.com, DecisionPoint, and The Technical Trader with Harry Boxer, who calls Gilburt "the best Elliott Wave analyst I've seen!"
Clear Pressure Remains Down February 2, 2016
While the bounce we saw off the 1910 support level in the S&P 500 earlier today is a bit small to solidly view it as a wave 2 retrace in this downtrend, a break of 1895 would make it likely that it is exactly what it was. Support below that is the 1880 level, and below that we are heading down to the 1835-1850 SPX region, which may still be an expanded (b) wave, as presented earlier. But, for now, it is clear that pressure will remain down.
Final 5th Wave of Oil's Drop? January 18, 2016
Last week, I was contemplating whether the US Oil Fund ETF (USO) is in its final 5th wave or if there is still one more 4thwave rise to be seen before the final 5th wave to complete this longer term correction. This past week, the market has extended down to that downside target. This provided more likelihood that this could be all of the final 5th wave in this drop.
What Our Analysts Are Saying About the Market January 13, 2016
Avi Gilburt: I just want to point out that the path we laid out for the week, which has been quite accurate, still tells us that we cannot even consider any upside move until at least 1931SPX - the 1.00 extension - is breached, with follow through over 1952SPX. Only if such a break out is seen can we buy into the purple triangle. Until then, we are still dealing with the red count, which, at this point in time, when it completes wave 3 should see a wave 4 rally back to 1931SPX.
Market Entering Bottoming Phase? January 10, 2016
Here are highlights from Avi Gilburt's wave analysis on the S&P 500, metals and oil. S&P 500: There are many indications that the next few months can not only see a major bottoming to the US equity markets, but there are many emerging markets which are tracing out long term bottoms within that expected time frame, along with a potential long term bottoming in oil and metals.
Miners & Metals Mid-Week Update October 22, 2015
While not much has really changed in the GLD and silver, the GDX has given us a little different pattern. But, before I go into my analysis, I want to make it clear that I still have nothing that suggests that the low is in for any of these 3 charts. Moreover, a top can make itself evident at any time now, even though I do “expect” at least one more rally. But, I am quite cautious about another rally.
What the DXY Can Tell Us About the SPX August 30, 2015
I am going to say something that may seem quite counter-intuitive to most, but the chart and market action is quite clear on this matter: Both the dollar and the equity markets have been moving in lockstep in the same general direction for quite some time. Yes, I know many have written through the years about the dollar and the equity market moving in opposite directions.
Door Open to Sub-1900 August 24, 2015
Due to the size of the extensions overnight, if 1914ES breaks, it opens the door to sub 1900 level in the SPX, and it still may only be wave 3 of this move off the highs. Clearly, resistance levels are dropped along with it. And, once we have a bottom in place, we can pinpoint the .382 retracement a lot more accurately. But, again, this drop overnight clearly has to open the door to considerations that wave 4 takes us down to the 1740 region.
Buy Gold On Strong Dollar or Buy On Weak Dollar? March 28, 2015
Since 2009, market participants have been expecting the demise of the US dollar. For years we were told that quantitative easing was going to cause pain to all those who dare hold dollars. And, for years, we were also told that the same quantitative easing was going to cause a parabolic rise to metals. It is now six years after our first round of quantitative easing, and how have most fared in following the common themes within the dollar and gold markets? Well, not too well.
Wave iii Rally? February 12, 2015
With the market pullback under 2064ES last night, it does place questions into my mind is this is indeed the wave (iii) in green break out. Ideally, it should not have broken below that. In order for me to view this as wave (iii), ideally want to see us holding over 2071ES and going directly to the prior all-time highs today, and then gapping over that tomorrow.
Has USO Finally Bottomed? January 20, 2015
A week ago , I noted to members that "as long as USO remains below the 19.05 level, we have another extension that points us towards the mid 16 region before this bottom is found." And, as we now know, the market maintained corrective action below the resistance region, and marked a bottom, pre-market, at 16.77 before it began a strong rally. Yet, amazingly, I cannot say that a bottom has been struck just yet.
Final Decline Phase for Precious Metals November 2, 2014
While I was uncertain about GLD’s downside set up last weekend, silver was a lot cleaner. As the week progressed, the downside set up in GLD did become a little clearer, and we were able to set resistance levels and move them down as the metals continued to maintain downside pressure throughout the week.
Has the Breakdown in Gold Been Averted for Now? September 28, 2014
While the GLD had the set up to break below the 2013 lows early this past week, and chose to invalidate that set up, it is starting to become more likely that the earliest we will see such a break down would be several weeks away. The reason I say this is based upon our silver chart, which has served us well over the last few months. And, at this time, silver has what looks to be an almost full pattern into the bottom of wave (v) of 3 of iii, which came within .05 of our ideal target.
Will Gold Ever Break Down? September 21, 2014
Yes, silver has finally done it. It has broken strongly below support, and if I was just looking at silver alone, I would assume that we are on our way to a final bottom in metals in the October-November time frame, with an ideal timing of Thanksgiving. However, silver does not live in a vacuum, and neither do I. So, I clearly have to view gold’s action this past week as well, and it does make me scratch my head a bit in wonderment.
Still Bearish on Metals, but Watching for Possible Reversal September 7, 2014
Silver was the clear “tell” to last week’s decline. And, at this point in time, it is still set up for further bearishness. But, the extent of that bearishness is still at question. With the amount of positive divergences I am seeing on all time frames on silver, I would ordinarily be going long in this region. However, since I do not have a solid bottom in place, nor do I have a solid completed bottoming structure on this decline YET, I am trying to be patient.
Silver & Gold: Bearish but Becoming Skeptical September 1, 2014
Most times I am able to provide you with high probability turning points in metals, which often are struck to the penny, thereafter seeing the expected turn in the market. Other times I have to take a more general approach, since the smaller degree perspectives are not clearly evident to me. Today, I find myself in the latter, rather than the former, perspective.
USO: No Signal Yet For a-wave Bottom August 24, 2014
With the USO seeing a rebound last week, but maintaining below the 35.80 resistance noted last weekend, we have subdivided lower in a rather sloppy wave structure. At this time, I still cannot confidently state that the a-wave to the downside has completed, and think there is still some more weakness that can be seen. For now, I will look to the 35.
Interrelationships of Dollar, Metals & ES July 27, 2014
With the way different markets have been moving together and others seemingly inverse each other of late, I wanted to take the time to write a “linear” perspective of what I think we can see if such linear relationships continue, which is also supported by the various patterns I am seeing. But, remember, I am attempting to apply some recent linear perspectives to a non-linear market, which sometimes winds up in “defraculation,” as el Hombre likes to put it.
Last week, I began to lay the ground work in explaining that the short side to the market is probably going to get more complicated, as the easy money on the short side has been made from the market top we identified at 133 down to our last target of 119 in GLD. But, no matter what happens over the next month or two, I want to make one thing clear.
Have We Begun The Larger Correction? March 13, 2014
With the drop Wednesday morning below 1860ES, we were able to find support at the midline level Fib level I discussed in the Weekend Update at 1853ES. While I ideally wanted to see us heading down to the 1845ES region, the 1.618 extension down, to develop an impulsive wave off the highs, it is clear that this is not going to be the case, and the market is going to make this much harder for us in not providing a clear 5 wave structure off the high.
Much Lower Levels Have Become Likely in USO January 12, 2014
Two weeks ago, we knew we had a high probability top in place in the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO). Our question only centered around whether it was a (b) wave top or an impulsive 5th wave top. With the break down this past week, the market resoundingly told us that no impulsive structure to the upside was going to be tolerated.
USO Almost at the Bottom November 10, 2013
As we have been expecting lower levels to be struck in the US Oil Fund ETF (USO), it does not seem reasonable to expect more than one more decline at this, at least based upon the extended count and the MACD set up. While one may consider that the last low was the bottom for this drop, when I look a bit more closely at the 13 minute chart for the USO, it would seem like the market is setting up for one more 5 wave decline which lines up very nicely with our next lower target in the 33.15-33.20 region.
Still No Bottoming Signal for USO November 3, 2013
While many were trying to go long oil a week ago, I tried warning that the technicals and the pattern were not providing us with a bottom being in place, and to await another decline to present us with a tradable low. In fact, the market turned down exactly at the first resistance level I kept noting at 35.60. Furthermore, last week I provided an initial target where a potential bottom may occur in the 34.20-34.
Tradable Low in Oil Should Be Upon Us October 28, 2013
Last weekend, I harped on the fact that the USO chart was quite unclear, and “while our 36.20 support region has still basically been holding, it is quite possible that it may break this upcoming week.” However, with the continued downside we saw this past week, the USO chart has provided a bit more clarity. In assuming that the shallow retracement back up which we saw last week was a b-wave, the drop we witnessed this past week seems to be a c-wave.
USO: Has The b-wave Completed? October 20, 2013
I have always discouraged traders from forcing a trade on a chart that does not provide a clear pattern. And, right now, there is no smaller time frame clarity in the US Oil Fund ETF (USO) chart. It is not a chart to which I would be allocating any trading money at this time, no matter what it does from this point forth. Or, not at least until I see a clear pattern I can comfortably trade. While our 36.
USO: I Still Want To See A Clearer B-wave High October 13, 2013
This past week, we saw the US Oil Fund ETF (USO) come even closer to our 36.20 support level with a low of 36.40, as opposed to last week’s 36.40 low. It is clear to me that if that level does break, we will likely see much lower levels in a larger a-wave of this large degree retracement in USO. So, while it is “possible” that the b-wave completed at last week’s high, I still think we may see another attempt to push towards the 38.30-39 region before a solid b-wave is in place.
Do We Ever Learn From The Past? October 6, 2013
Human nature often allows us to ignore the past rather than allow us to learn lessons from the past. We always think that “this time is different.” In fact, there is tremendous capacity within the human mind to not allow individuals, and especially the public at large, to be burdened by the lessons of history, and believe that we are in a new era in which the old rules no longer apply. We clearly saw this during the times of the Great Depression.
USO Bottoming? September 29, 2013
In my humble opinion, the best way to count this drop thus far is a larger degree a-wave of either a wave 2 pullback, or a deeper e-wave in a larger degree b-wave triangle. Based upon the technicals, we will likely see a bottom soon and it would not shock me to see the 36.20 Fib level hold on this decline. However, I still only believe that this is just the start of the decline.
Has USO Begun the Decline? September 23, 2013
The drop from the recent highs has looked quite overlapping thus far, which still leaves the door open to another rally in USO before it tops. However, we can also view the drop as a leading diagonal off the top, or even being an a-b c-structure off the highs. What all this means is that there is no clarity in the drop off the highs.
USO About to Drop? September 16, 2013
The USO broke down a bit more this past week, but then pushed its way back into the uptrend channel. So, while I cannot be certain that we will see another high being made in the USO, I think the probabilities are still pointing to much lower levels yet to be seen, even if one more high is seen.
Awaiting Next USO Rally June 2, 2013
Oftentimes, we can see a pattern develop which does not necessarily invalidate, but creates the wrong “look.” In this case, as we're seeing in the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO), while a 3rd wave higher has clearly not yet invalidated by retracing below the start of wave i, we clearly have the wrong “look” for what the start of a 3rd wave. Rather, I think we are seeing a larger b-wave consolidation.