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Mike Paulenoff

Downside Pressure for USD, Tailwinds for Gold & Silver

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) is under intense downside pressure this week, primarily due to the cooler-than-expected inflation data on CPI and PPI. When the bean counters take out the lagging data from rent, the inflation numbers ahead could be much closer to or below the Fed's 2% target. The downward inflationary pressure despite the belief that there will be price increases due to tariffs overlaid on a deteriorating geopolitical landscape, makes Dollar weakness all the more eyebrow-raising, no?My attached WEEKLY chart of DXY shows this morning's decline to a new three-year low at 97.

Market Analysis for Jun 12th, 2025

I am going to set a limit order to short Bitcoin futures at $108,430 with a stop at $109,320. I am going to try to ride a trade to $99K. We'll see how that works.

Honey Badger Rally - Market Analysis for Jun 12th, 2025

With the market not exhibiting the typical hallmarks of the conclusion of an ending diagonal (a spike up followed by a sharp reversal), it is simply continuing to grind higher towards the prior all-time high, despite a month of negative divergences evident on the 60-minute chart.  Yet, once this rally concludes, I am expecting a sharp reversal to begin the next larger pullback.  That begins with the break-down of the 5920SPX level, with follow-through below 5767SPX.So, there really is not much more for me to add to the analysis at this time.

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