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At the current pre-market price of 79.27, NFLX is down 41% from the ATH, as the price structure nears a significant technical inflection level in and around 75.00, which represents the Fibonacci 50% retracement-support level of the entire bull phase from the May 2022 low to the June 2025 high.Given the glaring positive Momentum divergences that have emerged during the last two weeks of trading (lower prices accompanied by higher Momentum readings), my preferred scenario argues for NFLX to pivot to the upside from the 75-80 Turn Window into a meaningful recovery rally that has its first challenge at 85.00-87.50.A CLOSE below 75.
I am going to lay out what I seeing in the SPX/ES charts, and you can decide how it should be viewed. From the bullish side of the market, we have now completed 5 waves into today’s low. And, in the yellow count, this could complete a much more protracted yellow (b) wave, suggesting a (c) wave rally north of 7100SPX has begun. Moreover, the MACD on the 60-minute chart seems to have reset down to the region from which rallies have begun.
Today, we saw the market open higher and continue to grind higher into the afternoon session, only to be rejected right at the 61.8% retrace of the move down off the highs. We are currently testing a key micro pivot that, if broken, would exhaust any reasonably probable bullish scenario that I could see that would take this to new highs before breaking back under yesterday’s low. So, as of the time of this writing, we are at a very key inflection/pivot level, which, if broken, will clearly give the edge to the bearish path.
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