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GDX (Gold Miners ETF) Update: My preferred scenario remains viable. As long as any strength is contained beneath resistance at 102.39 (last week's March-April rally high) and 103.40 (my line-in-the-sand technical resistance level), my pattern and momentum work indicate that GDX is vulnerable to a bout of weakness that presses the price structure toward a retest of the March corrective low-zone from 85 down to 79, prior to my expectation of the emergence of a new, powerful advance... Last is 94.97-95.08...
Today, we saw the market continue to push higher, with the SPX moving into new all-time high territory and the ES not far behind. To say this has been an impressive move off the lows would be an understatement. The ES has now rallied more than 11% in just 10 trading days, an aggressive move by any standard.What makes this even more notable is that it comes on the heels of significant fear and uncertainty near the lows. It’s safe to say that the vast majority of market participants were not positioned for, nor expecting, this type of upside extension.
Today, the market spiked and reversed the low struck earlier this week. And, while it invalidated the “immediate” bullish potential in a 1-2 to the upside, I cannot say that it has moved the needle to providing a strong bearish option pointing us down towards the 6175-6300SPX region. We are still way over standard support for a 4th wave – which is the top of the support box below on the 5-minute SPX chart (.382 retracement of wave iii) – and the decline has not really taken a clearly impulsive structure to the downside.
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