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At the current pre-market price of 79.27, NFLX is down 41% from the ATH, as the price structure nears a significant technical inflection level in and around 75.00, which represents the Fibonacci 50% retracement-support level of the entire bull phase from the May 2022 low to the June 2025 high.Given the glaring positive Momentum divergences that have emerged during the last two weeks of trading (lower prices accompanied by higher Momentum readings), my preferred scenario argues for NFLX to pivot to the upside from the 75-80 Turn Window into a meaningful recovery rally that has its first challenge at 85.00-87.50.A CLOSE below 75.
Even though trend trades are higher probability trade setups, we did have a nice counter trend buy setup recently in TLT with timing factors. We actually had a relatively wide timing zone between 2/3-2/7, but the first standout bars in our timing histogram came in 2/3 - 2/4. Our price support cluster came in between 86.31-86.42 which included two symmetry projections and a 1.272 price extension. The actual low was made on 2/3 at 86.43 which was within a penny of the zone. As you can see a beautiful rally followed.
I have been tracking Coinbase (COIN) closely in a public article series that I began in 2025. In my article dated May 2025, I was looking for an important top, which proved prescient.Coinbase investors would have done well to heed my warnings, as COIN lost nearly 70% of its value between its all-time high in June 2026 and its recent low. Since that article, my October and December updates have tracked the corrective machinations that follow an important top, when analysis becomes more nuanced and complex.
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