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Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! September 30, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- Today is the final trading session of September and Q3, 2025... -- Today is trading day #187 for 2025. Trading days 180 to 200 have produced the worst returns in the cash SPX on average since 1985. The close on day # 179 (9/19/25) was 6664.36. Yesterday's close on day #186 (9/29/25) was 6661.21, for a net negative closing differential of 3.15 "tiny" points so far during this historically negative period for the big cap SP500! -- No Economic Data today, BUT the growing prospect of a Government Shutdown at Midnight tonight appears to be a done deal.
Today we saw both the SPX and Nasdaq push to new highs on what can best be described as sloppy wave action. The moves off the September 2nd low and, more recently, the September 25th low continue to trace out in three-wave corrective structures to the upside. This price action suggests we are still working within two potential Ending Diagonals, one off the 9/2 low and another of smaller degree off the 9/25 low.Because we are dealing with diagonals rather than impulsive structures, this remains a more challenging pattern to analyze.
The market turned immediately down after the open this morning, following expectations for a corrective pullback as wave (4) of C discussed in the premarket update. The pullback this morning ended up reaching the lower end of the fib support cited for wave (4) at 6744, which has so far held and been followed by a nice rally this afternoon.
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