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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! Pre-Market Update: Yesterday afternoon, President Trump threw cold water on an imminent U.S. military attack on Iran, which immediately triggered an algorithmic headline-triggered short-covering rally that persisted into the close, and in so doing, propelled ES above its 20 DMA ahead of the closing bell, averting a problematic, potentially negative technical setup.On the contrary, yesterday's early weakness to a two-day low at 6923 ended a 1.6% pullback from the ATH at 7036.50 (1/14/26) that has been followed by a strong rally to 6999.00 so far during this morning's pre-market session.
I am putting out a short update since I am absolutely exhausted from my travel to Israel today.In gold, we now have enough waves to consider this rally as having topped. Yet, we have not seen the usual hallmark of an ending diagonal completion, wherein it spikes through the trend channel followed by a stronger reversal back into it to start its decline. So, until we actually see a sustained break down below 4545, I still have to leave that door open.Silver has more than enough waves in place as well.
Today the market pushed higher and tested the overhead pivot, which, if broken, would have provided a signal that the market was ready to move higher in the weeks ahead. However, as we moved into the close, the market began to break undera key micro support level. If we see a sustained break of this support level then it increases the likelihood that today’s advance was simply a wave b within a larger move to the downside.
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