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Emotions vs. The Big Picture Technical Indicator ConditionsWith each passing hour and headline, the stock indices react instantaneously to the prospect of EITHER purported total destruction of the Iranian nation-state OR something much less devastating that presumably paves a conciliatory path forward. No one knows what to expect during the 9-1/2 hours until the deadline time. Extremes: Total annihilation vs Ceasefire/Surrender? Will either or both extremes open the Strait of Hormuz? The Gray Area: Everything in-between the extremes...Technically, however, my Big Picture Condition Indicators are saying, "don't worry, look for a positive outcome" (whatever that looks like)!...
Bitcoin: IndecisionOne simple heuristic in Elliott Wave Analysis is to look at whether price is developing 5 wave structures in a particular direction or whether all moves in both directions are 3 wave moves. The market characteristics since the February low struck on 2/6 around $60k, fit the latter pattern: ie, 3 wave moves in both directions. This aligns with a market that lacks conviction to find clear momentum in a particular direction and is very typical of consolidations.
After pulling back into support today, the market saw a push higher on what does count best as a micro five-wave move to the upside. We are currently testing the top of that micro five but have yet to break over that high. We still have some key overhead resistance levels that will need to be taken out to confirm that we have indeed bottomed, and until those levels are broken, there still is a risk of seeing lower levels before any significant bottom is found.The most important overhead resistance level remains at the 6684–6728 region.
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