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ES weakness during the three-day weekend, precipitated by the fallout from "The Great Disruptor," President Trump's "threats" to take Greenland by force, and to engage in battle with NATO et al, has inflicted meaningful technical damage to the dominant post-11/21/25 uptrend. My attached Daily Chart shows ES has sliced beneath key support clustered in and around 6950/60, which includes the 8 Day EMA, the 20 Day SMA, and the dominant up trendline. ES proceeded lower, breaking and sustaining beneath the 50 DMA (6892), but so far, holding just above the 100 DMA, now at 6831, where the current correction off the ATH at 7036.25 nears -3%.
As I have outlined many times before, the gold and mining stock market bottomed at the end of 2015, and we have since been involved in a 10+ year bull market in gold and GDX. While silver bottomed later, it has caught up rather well, as is typical of silver, and all the charts seem to be suggesting this is late cycle action.Of course, there still could be another 4-5 to still be seen, which is my alternative count in silver and gold, but my primary count in GDX.
Today the market traded higher, but from a wave count and analysis perpective there is very little change from yesterday's update. We still only have three waves up off the low with no confirmation of even a local top just yet. As I noted yesterday, even if we do continue higher, the most likely scenario would be in the form of a larger ending diagonal. That would imply a choppy and overlapping path toward new highs that will be difficult to track with a high degree of certainty.My focus will remain on the structure of the next pullback.
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