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Good Sunday Morning, MPTraders! March 1, 2026: Special Update: Are there any market indications on Sunday afternoon that might provide directional hints about tonight's stock index, oil, and gold openings? Bitcoin is the only currently trading risk-on vs. risk-off 24/7 market that might be informative about market direction after Friday eve's U.S. and Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran, followed by Saturday's announcement that the Ayatollah Khamenei and many of his ruling leadership were killed.
Today we saw the market turn sharply lower and then find support into the afternoon session. We are still trading well under the HOD but have yet to break micro support to the upside, which still leaves a number of possible paths on the table as we head into the close. I will note that I think the Nasdaq is painting a slightly cleaner picture at the moment, but we will need to see how things follow through in the days ahead before we really have a better idea as to the market's intentions as we move into March.
Many of you may have noticed that I did not mention a single word of the Middle East in my weekend analysis. I am probably alone throughout the entire internet in that regard. And, the reason is that the market is likely going to do as it is set up to do. To drive this point home, I challenge each and every one of you to show me an instance when a war breaking out was a “cause” for a market decline, and I can probably show you just as many examples as it was a “cause” for a rally.
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