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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! October 9, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: ES climbed to another new ATH at 6812.25 in overnight trading, now sitting above 6800 ahead of the opening bell. My attached Daily Chart indicates that as long as any forthcoming weakness is contained and repelled above or within consequential near-term support lodged from 6771 down to 6724, the bulls will remain in directional control, eying 6850 next, en route to 6880/90... Last is 6802.00... (continued below my ES Chart)...Benchmark 10-year YIELD starts today's session at 4.14%, which we see on my attached Big Picture Chart is encased between important resistance from 4.16% to 4.21% and support at 4.08% to 4.11%.
The market rebounded today, easily exceeding the retrace resistance this morning that was cited as where a corrective (B)-wave bounce needed to hold. Therefore, price appears to want to attempt another high as at least further extension in wave C of v. Assuming a higher high is seen, 6809.50 and 6819.25 ES are now the next fib targets possible to reach above yesterday's high. Otherwise, to start treating price immediately bearish again, a break back below 6775 ES is needed as the first warning sign of weakness and eventually price needs to take out yesterday's low to reestablish a potential top.
Over the last week the SPX has been hovering and generally holding the 6700SPX region. Right now, that is an initial signal level for me. Until we break that support, the upside still has potential up towards the next larger degree Fib level in the 6830 region. However, should the market first break the 6700SPX support, then it finally can open the door to more of a pullback. Of course, the 6550 level is going to be the tougher nut to crack.
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