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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! October 9, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: ES climbed to another new ATH at 6812.25 in overnight trading, now sitting above 6800 ahead of the opening bell. My attached Daily Chart indicates that as long as any forthcoming weakness is contained and repelled above or within consequential near-term support lodged from 6771 down to 6724, the bulls will remain in directional control, eying 6850 next, en route to 6880/90... Last is 6802.00... (continued below my ES Chart)...Benchmark 10-year YIELD starts today's session at 4.14%, which we see on my attached Big Picture Chart is encased between important resistance from 4.16% to 4.21% and support at 4.08% to 4.11%.
The market rebounded today, easily exceeding the retrace resistance this morning that was cited as where a corrective (B)-wave bounce needed to hold. Therefore, price appears to want to attempt another high as at least further extension in wave C of v. Assuming a higher high is seen, 6809.50 and 6819.25 ES are now the next fib targets possible to reach above yesterday's high. Otherwise, to start treating price immediately bearish again, a break back below 6775 ES is needed as the first warning sign of weakness and eventually price needs to take out yesterday's low to reestablish a potential top.
After being so stretched to the downside in Friday’s decline, it was not hard to expect a bounce to develop early this week. But, the question with then be how the market pulls back from this bounce?Well, thus far, the pullback has been corrective. And as I noted in the weekend update, until the market provides to us an indication that it will continue lower, we are forced to continue looking higher.Another wrinkle in our charts is that the ES dropped a bit further than the SPX, which does cause a bit of complication.
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