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Cash Bitcoin and MSTR Update: Truth be told, the pattern carved out by BTC from its Feb. 2026 low at 60,070 continues to "impress me" as exhibiting counter-trend form, and as such, a recovery rally that is entering its 6th week. That said, however, strength from current levels of 70,700 that hurdles and sustains above the recent high at 74,100 will argue for an upside extension of the counter-trend upmove toward 80,500-82,500. At this juncture, a bout of weakness that breaks 65,000 will be problematic for BTC... As for MSTR, it too has carved out a counter-trend recovery rally off its February 2026 low at 100.
After several sessions of very high intraday volatility, the market is taking a bit of a breather today, currently down less than 1/2 of a percent at the time of this writing. We are still sitting over support but remain under the next key pivot/resistance level. A break of either of these levels should help provide further guidance as to whether the market still has another lower low to go to finish off this initial move down, or whether Monday’s low may already represent at least a local bottom.
While the bigger structure right now is pointing lower, the micro structure is still not wholly clear, and providing some very near term mixed messages. Allow me to explain.Starting with GDX, we seem to be working on a 1-2 decline in the c-wave. But, there is still a bit of a question in my mind as to whether the wave 2 is done, as we did not even reach the .382 retracement of the initial decline from the b-wave high. That is an unusually shallow 2nd wave retrace.
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