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Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! April 15, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- The overbought market was positioned for a Wednesday pullback, but President Trump's comments (see below) and the attendant knee-jerk algorithmic buy programs attached to his comments put a floor under any weakness in pre-market trading. MJP comment: Whereas POTUS jawboning and comments drove the equity market higher since 4/08/26, now- one week later-- his tweets are merely holding it up, not driving it higher, which is a much riskier proposition for late buyers up here... and a prescription for disappointment...
Today, we saw the market continue to push higher, with the SPX moving into new all-time high territory and the ES not far behind. To say this has been an impressive move off the lows would be an understatement. The ES has now rallied more than 11% in just 10 trading days, an aggressive move by any standard.What makes this even more notable is that it comes on the heels of significant fear and uncertainty near the lows. It’s safe to say that the vast majority of market participants were not positioned for, nor expecting, this type of upside extension.
I waited until this evening to write the update, hoping that I would glean further information if we got some real movement. But, alas, no such luck.With the amount of overlap in this rally off the recent lows in metals, there really is no high probability path to which I can point – other than ultimately lower. While the potential for this being a 4th wave is still just barely on the table, the purple count has clearly been rising in probability.
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