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On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.41 on 11/20/25, amounting to a 75% reduction in price value! Tariffs, inflation, competition, scarcity of some product-- and who-knows-what-else clobbered the stock for 12 months, HOWEVER, if my work is reasonably accurate, CAVA has seen the worst, and as we speak, already is in the grasp of a budding new bull phase.
Today, we saw the market continue to push higher, with the SPX moving into new all-time high territory and the ES not far behind. To say this has been an impressive move off the lows would be an understatement. The ES has now rallied more than 11% in just 10 trading days, an aggressive move by any standard.What makes this even more notable is that it comes on the heels of significant fear and uncertainty near the lows. It’s safe to say that the vast majority of market participants were not positioned for, nor expecting, this type of upside extension.
The upside action has been waning of late as we are grinding higher to complete this 5th wave. So, there really is not a lot to add to the analysis. What is also interesting is that the SPX can be considered as completing this 5th wave imminently (or just a first wave in a more extended 5th wave), while the ES looks like it still has a bit further to go in completing an ending diagonal for this 5th wave.So, it leads us to one conclusion: We will need a break down below the wave iv low (7046.
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