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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! April 9, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: -- The range of positive, expected, or feared outcomes and the propaganda from the belligerents has created extreme, but increasingly plausible tail risks unlike I have seen in my four decades navigating markets... Hopefully, the tail risks will narrow rather than widen further after this Saturday's face-to-face U.S.-Iranian negotiations, which will be welcome news ahead of a new Earnings season starting next week, when investors might be able to refocus on business and the economy, rather than gaming more War...
One of the more important lessons I’ve learned over the years, often the hard way, is how quickly the market can transition from a high-volatility regime to a lower-volatility environment. These shifts are not always obvious in real time, but they have a meaningful impact on how we need to approach trading.When volatility contracts, our expectations must adjust with it. If we continue to anticipate the same magnitude and speed of moves that we saw during higher-volatility conditions, it can lead to frustration and, more importantly, losing trades.
Over the last year, I followed the monthly machinations of Coinbase’s stock prices (COIN), from its long-term top in the $400s, to the 70% dive into the mid $100s. I have held out COIN as having great long-term investing potential, while expecting to see COIN investors experience much pain in the short to intermediate term. My goal is to help COIN investors avoid getting over their skis while they safely accumulate through a bear market. This bear market may bring the most resilient among us to severe frustration. It is not likely to be anywhere near completion.
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