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Mike Paulenoff

Climbing Crude Price Is Elephant In The Room

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  April 29, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: --- Today is Fed Day (2 PM and 2:30 PM ET)...--- Mag7 Earnings Day (MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOG after the close)...--- But the elephant in the room this morning is the continued sharp climb in the nearby June Crude Oil price to a 3-week high at 103.82, which represents a 31.5% upmove since the April 17th pullback low at 78.97 (from the 4/07/26 high at 114.

Market Grinding Lower, but Still Holding Key Support

The market continued to drift lower today, but the character of the decline remains overlapping and relatively slow in velocity. This type of price action continues to suggest we are dealing with a corrective pullback rather than the start of a larger impulsive Wave (c) to the downside.The primary question at this stage is not direction, but depth, how far this corrective move will carry before the market attempts to resume higher.As long as we remain above even the upper support pivots, we simply do not yet have enough information to resolve that question.

5th Wave Seems To Be In Progress

As I was surmising of late, the rally off wave iv really seemed too small to mark a full 5th wave in this structure off the recent low.  And, as I am writing this update now, it seems that we are now in wave (iii) of wave v, but it is taking shape as an ending diagonal due to the obvious overlap we are seeing in the futures structure.Normally, the 3rd wave in a diagonal targets the 1.

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