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On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.41 on 11/20/25, amounting to a 75% reduction in price value! Tariffs, inflation, competition, scarcity of some product-- and who-knows-what-else clobbered the stock for 12 months, HOWEVER, if my work is reasonably accurate, CAVA has seen the worst, and as we speak, already is in the grasp of a budding new bull phase.
Today, we saw the market continue to push higher, with the SPX moving into new all-time high territory and the ES not far behind. To say this has been an impressive move off the lows would be an understatement. The ES has now rallied more than 11% in just 10 trading days, an aggressive move by any standard.What makes this even more notable is that it comes on the heels of significant fear and uncertainty near the lows. It’s safe to say that the vast majority of market participants were not positioned for, nor expecting, this type of upside extension.
Today, the market spiked and reversed the low struck earlier this week. And, while it invalidated the “immediate” bullish potential in a 1-2 to the upside, I cannot say that it has moved the needle to providing a strong bearish option pointing us down towards the 6175-6300SPX region. We are still way over standard support for a 4th wave – which is the top of the support box below on the 5-minute SPX chart (.382 retracement of wave iii) – and the decline has not really taken a clearly impulsive structure to the downside.
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