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At the current pre-market price of 79.27, NFLX is down 41% from the ATH, as the price structure nears a significant technical inflection level in and around 75.00, which represents the Fibonacci 50% retracement-support level of the entire bull phase from the May 2022 low to the June 2025 high.Given the glaring positive Momentum divergences that have emerged during the last two weeks of trading (lower prices accompanied by higher Momentum readings), my preferred scenario argues for NFLX to pivot to the upside from the 75-80 Turn Window into a meaningful recovery rally that has its first challenge at 85.00-87.50.A CLOSE below 75.
COIN: For now, after yesterday's low I expect this move to round out a wave-4 before it drops to the $114 region. That view can change given how oversold it has become. It starts with five waves over $195.
Even though trend trades are higher probability trade setups, we did have a nice counter trend buy setup recently in TLT with timing factors. We actually had a relatively wide timing zone between 2/3-2/7, but the first standout bars in our timing histogram came in 2/3 - 2/4. Our price support cluster came in between 86.31-86.42 which included two symmetry projections and a 1.272 price extension. The actual low was made on 2/3 at 86.43 which was within a penny of the zone. As you can see a beautiful rally followed.
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