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The Yen, the USD, and SPX...You have been and will be reading about the plunge in the Yen vs. the USD. YEN is trading near its 1986 levels versus the USD, and today took out its July 2024 prior significant low .Who Cares?We might have to care because the last time this happened-- in July 2024, the Bank of Japan and the Fed intervened to buy YEN against the Dollar (in other words, they sold USDs to buy YEN), which triggered a series of dominoes that negatively impacted the SPX to the tune of an 11% correction in the latter.
Today we saw the market open lower only to push higher in the afternoon session, testing the 76.4% retrace level of the move down off of the 6/15 high. So far that level has held almost to the penny and turned down, but we still do not have any indication that we have put in any sort of top just yet. This leaves us pretty much where we were yesterday, and if this is going to push higher per the yellow count, we will need to see a break over resistance.
Week in ReviewVolume was quite decent for a shortened week,.and the SPX closed approximately 130 points higher. The preceding week lost approximately 150 points. In other words, we haven't moved much in two weeks. In fact, one can argue that SPX has been trending sideways since the week of May 11th. Despite the major equity indexes being out of sync for some time, this high-level, sideways pattern can also be seen on the Nasdaq, albeit with greater volatility.
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