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Mike Paulenoff

Sigh-Of-Relief Response So Far to PCE Data

I will label the reaction to the in-line-to-slightly-cooler PCE data (see Table Below) as a sigh of relief response, that we see on my attached ES chart has popped the index higher from 5065 to 5095.25so far, which has the right look of the conclusion of the 5 session stair-step correction and the initiation of a new upleg that points to new ATHs at 5150/60 next. Only a sudden downside reversal that relinquishes this AMs 30 point gain will damage the near-term technical setup... Last is 5094.00...As for 10 year YIELD, it has pressed down a couple of ticks, and AAPL has bounced from 180.45 to 181.

Market Still Consolidating - Market Analysis for Feb 28th, 2024

There is very little to add to the analysis today as the market continues to consolidate near the highs on corrective wave action to the downside. The bottom line on the SPX remains that as long as we hold over the 5044-4985 zone then the wave ii bottoming count remains intact and in play here which I am showing in yellow on the 10min SPX chart. We would need to see a full five up off of one of the support fibs to suggest we are starting the wave iii up.

Getting Even More Cautious Now

As I have been highlighting of late, the IWM has been the chart that is a strong signal for me regarding whether the overall equity market is topping.   Until today, I had been viewing it as still within wave 4 of its [c] wave.  However, with the move over the 204.77 prior high, I am now more inclined to view it in the ending diagonal structure, as was priorly outlined in yellow.   Right now, it has become my primary count.

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