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Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! September 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: This day has finally arrived! Fed Time!Let's take a look at some Big Picture Set-Ups to see if we can arrive at a directional reaction to whatever the Warsh Fed does and says between 2 PM and 3:30 PM ET today:Weekly 10-Year YIELD argues for upside continuation-- not necessarily immediately-- to 5.25%-5.50% before pivoting to the downside into a major correction. If that proves to be the case, then will upside continuation from 5% to 5.
With the metals turning down today, it has opened the door to a deeper correction. Let’s start with GDXAs the market was rallying yesterday, I warned not to get too bullish just yet as it has not proven its clear bullish intent just yet. In fact, I noted as we were hitting yesterday’s highs that “[i]f anyone wants a little protection in GDX, this is a nice place for it. . .between here and 101.83.”Since that point, I can count a 5-wave decline into this morning’s low.
Today we saw the market move lower after moving higher on Monday and consolidating on Tuesday. Avi noted the potential for this pullback in yesterday's update, and today it seems to be taking shape. With that said, as long as the structure of this move down remains corrective in nature and we are able to hold over support, the simplest path still remains higher before breaking down under last week's low. If, however, we begin to break support and do so in five waves, then it would open the door for a break of last week's low.
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