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SPY popped to a new ATH at 754.00 in pre-market trading on the news that the US and Iran are nearing an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, but the SPX ETF has since receded to the 751.75 area, again, in what I think is a disappointing reaction to this news... although to be fair, every couple of days we get news that a deal might be done that turns out to be wishful thinking.
Carnival and Norwegian sail the same waters. Their charts suggest they are not headed to the same destination.The cruise industry tells an incomplete story at the surface level.Ships are full. Bookings have recovered. The visible signs of the pandemic's devastation have largely faded from the operating picture. If you only looked at passenger counts, you might conclude that the sector has returned to form.The balance sheets reveal a different reality.
With the market popping higher today this seems to be the final segment in the wave (v). Therefore, when we break back below the last micro-consolidation – which is basically the 7500SPX support level – then that is the initial signal that this structure has completed.Ultimately, we still need to break down below 7389SPX, with follow through below 7320SPX to confirm that we are either in the blue wave 2, or the red a-wave. But, please recognize that we are now striking the 3.764 extension off waves i-ii in this rally off the end of March low.
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