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Mike Paulenoff

Holding Just Above Key Support

ES weakness during the three-day weekend, precipitated by the fallout from "The Great Disruptor," President Trump's "threats" to take Greenland by force, and to engage in battle with NATO et al, has inflicted meaningful technical damage to the dominant post-11/21/25 uptrend. My attached Daily Chart shows ES has sliced beneath key support clustered in and around 6950/60, which includes the 8 Day EMA, the 20 Day SMA, and the dominant up trendline. ES proceeded lower, breaking and sustaining beneath the 50 DMA (6892), but so far, holding just above the 100 DMA, now at 6831, where the current correction off the ATH at 7036.25 nears -3%.

Bitcoin: Finally Outside of the Consolidation Range!

Bitcoin: Finally outside of the consolidation range!For nearly 2 months following the November low, price remained stuck in consolidation between the November 21st spike low down to $80k and the initial corrective bounce high at $94k struck on 12/3. However, in this past week, price has finally gotten a sustained break above the upper bound of the region though I can hardly call the action resoundingly bullish. So despite the exclamation point in the title, there's little of interest to longer term Bitcoin investors in this update.

DLR: Quiet Separation in a Noisy Market

In a market where real estate and REITs are often treated as a single macro trade, nuance tends to get lost. Rising rates, falling rates, growth scares, and inflation narratives frequently sweep entire sectors into broad, undifferentiated moves. And yet, markets rarely behave that cleanly beneath the surface. Over time, they separate — quietly at first — rewarding some structures while leaving others behind.Digital Realty Trust appears to be entering one of those moments.

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