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Mike Paulenoff

Bond Market Anticipating Weaker Economic Data

TLT and Retail Sales follow-up: Well then, remove autos and gasoline from the equation, and what we see as the residual is stronger-than-expected retail sales (see the table below)... Although that is the case, TLT did not implode or otherwise weaken beneath key support levels in reaction to the data. In fact, just before the data were released, TLT was circling 93.58/63, and now, more than 30 minutes later, TLT is circling 93.35/40, still up 0.5% in pre-market trading. My attached 4-Hour Chart shows that from a near-term technical perspective, as long as support at 92.

IWM Hitting A Target

The IWM is now hitting the 1.236 extension in the yellow count outlined on the 60-minute chart.   This is a typical target for a 3rd wave within an ending diagonal, which is what is represented by the yellow count.  Of course, the market can choose to continue to extend to the 1.382 extension in the 225.50 region, and I would not necessarily discount that based upon the manner in which the market has been rallying.  But, by all measures, we are certainly stretched.Support is now in the 213.50 region, which is the .

Nightly Crypto Report: Good Time to Retrace

Good Time To RetraceLong Term:Intermediate views are included.Housekeeping:I am on vacation from July 20-23 so there will be no webinar on the 20th. However, I will initiate a special webinar, or offline video if action demands it.Micro:GeneralI am watching for a wave four pullback in both Bitcoin and Ether. If they hold, that would give us further support for the bottom being in.  BitcoinBitcoin topped in an ABC structure intraday and should drop in circle-A as long as the high holds. The lower channel where red-iv should hold is now at $60,800.

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