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Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! April 15, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- The overbought market was positioned for a Wednesday pullback, but President Trump's comments (see below) and the attendant knee-jerk algorithmic buy programs attached to his comments put a floor under any weakness in pre-market trading. MJP comment: Whereas POTUS jawboning and comments drove the equity market higher since 4/08/26, now- one week later-- his tweets are merely holding it up, not driving it higher, which is a much riskier proposition for late buyers up here... and a prescription for disappointment...
I can’t remember the last time I saw this many heads being scratched as I did yesterday and today. The news is clearly that there is no peace agreement, yet the market has rallied over 2% during that time. In fact, it has rallied almost 3.5% off the overnight low struck on Sunday night, despite the news which was taken as something that should have been very negative for the market.
In my last educational article, I discussed the transition from high- to low-volatility regimes and how difficult it can be to identify those shifts in real time. Along those same lines, I want to address another major challenge traders face: recency bias and the fear of missing out on new trades.This is one of the more difficult aspects of trading psychology; even experienced traders struggle with it, especially after a strong winning streak. To achieve long-term consistency, you must be careful not to let recent results influence your decision-making or allow FOMO to push you into lower-quality setups.
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