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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! February 19, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:Economic Data Today: For the most part, stronger Labor data than expected, stronger Manufacturing Data than expected, stronger Business Conditions and Manufacturing Orders than expected, overlaid on declining inflation... all of which-- to the extent that we believe this round of data-- to this observer, seems Goldilocks-ish, no? (Continued below)...Goldilocks or not, this "miserably" range-bound circle jerk of a market is what we encounter every day. It is as if the market is frustrating itself into a flatline EKG, ahead of a frantic directional breakout frenzy in one direction or other.
Today, we saw the market open higher and continue to grind higher into the afternoon session, only to be rejected right at the 61.8% retrace of the move down off the highs. We are currently testing a key micro pivot that, if broken, would exhaust any reasonably probable bullish scenario that I could see that would take this to new highs before breaking back under yesterday’s low. So, as of the time of this writing, we are at a very key inflection/pivot level, which, if broken, will clearly give the edge to the bearish path.
Well, up until now, I have given the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. However, that benefit of the doubt is starting to erode.With the lack of follow-through to the upside, we have been reducing the probability that the bulls can still take us higher one more time before the bigger correction begins. As of the time of my writing this update, the only path I can maintain for the bullish follow through is via a leading diagonal. And, as you may already know, I do not view them as strong trading cues.
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