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Good Friday Morning, MPTraders! October 9, 2026-- Pre-Market UpdateThe current cover of The Economist: Is it a contrarian's signal to buy bonds (in expectation of lower longer-term yields)?If I overlay my chartwork on The Economist's Bond "signal," YIELD will need to roll over and nose-dive beneath 4.75%-4.80% to trigger a serious trend reversal. Otherwise, weakness in YIELD will be considered a minor pullback in a dominant uptrend pattern that is destined to blow through 5.50% en route to 6.00%.
After moving lower yesterday, the market pushed back higher today, keeping the door open for further upside action and another push to new highs. Furthermore, today's move has invalidated the potential for a five-wave decline off the highs, making the possibility of a top in an expanded b wave less likely.Unfortunately, the overall pattern on the smaller timeframes remains quite messy. As Avi noted yesterday, the SPX does technically have enough waves in place to consider at least a local top, so we still need to remain cognizant of that possibility.
In Case You Missed It…SPX gained approximately 89 points this week on average volume. As noted last week, SPX has been compressing to the upside.The SPX Gamma Threshold level is in the 7720-7740 region. SPX is comfortably long gamma and thus low volatility and slow upside drift should be expected. Learn more about the GT level here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/gamma-optimizer/Understanding-the-GT-level-202012076573537.html.NDX made another new all time high on Tuesday of this week. The compression pattern to the upside is even more stark on NDX.
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