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Mike Paulenoff

Bias To The Upside

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  March 5, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- The War enters Day #5... -- ES is circling the mid-section of a multi-month range amid an impending historical directional shift from negative to positive (See chartwork below)...-- Oil Prices climbed to a new "wartime" high at $78.09 overnight, threatening to emerge from a multi-year range...-- AVGO (Broadcom) reacted positively to Earnings, which has goosed the stock 6%, but can AVGO continue to climb to inflict meaningful damage to the still-dominant three-month correction?  -- COST reports Earnings after today's close...

Downside Set Up - Market Analysis for Mar 4th, 2026

While I am showing a potential 1-2, i-ii in both gold and silver, I have to note there are a number of issues with it.  First, I cannot say that the wave i structure is the cleanest of 5-wave structures.  Second, normally, wave i of 3 will target AT LEAST the .382 extension of waves 1-2, whereas they normally target the .618 extension of waves 1-2.  And, what I have labeled as wave i of 3 has not even come close to the .382 extension.

Market Failed At Resistance, But The Pattern Remains Cloudy

Overnight, the market failed right at the key resistance level that would have needed to break to signal that we were heading directly higher per the yellow count. Today we saw additional downside follow-through; however, the move down off the high is counting better as a corrective wave pattern rather than an impulsive move.This wave structure still leaves several potential paths, and there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to which direction the market will ultimately break in the near term.

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