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Cash Bitcoin and IBIT Update: On February 5, 2026, when BTC was trading at 69,322, this is what we discussed about my Big Picture Weekly Chart Setup:My Weekly BTC setup indicates that the 70,000 down to up-sloping 200 Week MA, now at 58,085, is the potential bull-bear-battle Turn Zone that will be played out over a 4 to 6 week period, likely the requisite timeframe for WEEKLY Momentum to bottom, create a positive divergence, and then turn up...
Overnight, we saw the market move lower in what is, so far, corrective wave action, following the general path and structure to the downside into the lower support zone that I outlined in yesterday’s update. With that in mind, we now need to see how the market reacts in this region and, more importantly, what the next move to the upside looks like from a structural perspective. That will help provide further guidance as to whether we ultimately see another lower low per the purple count, or if this market finds a bottom in the yellow wave (b).
With the futures not making any lower lows yet, and understanding that a truncated ending diagonal is a rare occurrence, the greater probability seems to suggest that there is another lower low sitting out there for the ES, and hence, the SPX potentially as well.
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