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Cash Bitcoin and MSTR Update: Truth be told, the pattern carved out by BTC from its Feb. 2026 low at 60,070 continues to "impress me" as exhibiting counter-trend form, and as such, a recovery rally that is entering its 6th week. That said, however, strength from current levels of 70,700 that hurdles and sustains above the recent high at 74,100 will argue for an upside extension of the counter-trend upmove toward 80,500-82,500. At this juncture, a bout of weakness that breaks 65,000 will be problematic for BTC... As for MSTR, it too has carved out a counter-trend recovery rally off its February 2026 low at 100.
Bitcoin: And Another Bites The Dust:"Another what?" you might ask. Another micro count. Last week, a micro count for an immediate decline was presented in black which required Bitcoin to maintain below the 2/25 high around $70k. The other immediate count, displayed in purple, showed a possible path up to $77k+ from the 2/24 low. First, price broke the 2/25 high and then continued up through the 2/8 high providing the first evidence of potential continuation up from the February low.
With the rally off the Sunday night low now reaching the target box I provided yesterday afternoon, we have just about reached an a=c point off the low. I have it estimated on my SPX chart due to not having the low on this chart that was struck in the futures. So, the numbers may not be exact.Based upon our Fibonacci Pinball structure, once the market reaches the 1.00 extension, the .618 extension becomes our support. That is generally over the 6780SPX region.
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