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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! April 9, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: -- The range of positive, expected, or feared outcomes and the propaganda from the belligerents has created extreme, but increasingly plausible tail risks unlike I have seen in my four decades navigating markets... Hopefully, the tail risks will narrow rather than widen further after this Saturday's face-to-face U.S.-Iranian negotiations, which will be welcome news ahead of a new Earnings season starting next week, when investors might be able to refocus on business and the economy, rather than gaming more War...
The market moved higher today, exceeding yesterday's high and coming closer to reaching the .764 retrace at 6913.50 that has been discussed as a target for the b-wave bounce.However, by continuing directly higher, price has left us with a less than satisfying wave (iv) of c, being such a shallow and short-lived pullback that finished yesterday morning. Therefore, it looks easily as likely that price is instead just extending a little bit further in wave (iii) of c and another (iv)-(v) will still follow.Either way, 6885.75 - 6932.
One of the more important lessons I’ve learned over the years, often the hard way, is how quickly the market can transition from a high-volatility regime to a lower-volatility environment. These shifts are not always obvious in real time, but they have a meaningful impact on how we need to approach trading.When volatility contracts, our expectations must adjust with it. If we continue to anticipate the same magnitude and speed of moves that we saw during higher-volatility conditions, it can lead to frustration and, more importantly, losing trades.
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