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Mike Paulenoff

Oil Hits Our First Upside Target Window

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  April 2, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  Today is the final session of the week. Market's are closed tomorrow for Good Friday... Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, the Gov't releases the March Jobs Report (to be discussed later this AM)...-- If President Trump intended to imbue the financial markets with confidence about an end to the Iran War, well, whatever he said or did not say had the opposite effect...Front month May NYMEX Crude Oil rocketed from 97.50 just before Trump's speech to a high-- as I am typing this post-- at 112.77 (+15.

Expectation for b-wave pullback satisfied, but not clearly complete yet

In the pre-market update this morning I noted that price had reached the .500 retrace at 6502 that was the preferred target I mentioned in the update I sent out last night, but that the structure off yesterday's high looked like a possible 5 down. Therefore, it at least needed to be considered that the pre-market low only finished wave (a) of b, with the circle b-wave could turn into a wider flat.Price cooperated by continuing higher following the open, retracing almost all of the overnight drop and coming close to retesting yesterday's high but for now still trading below there.

Bitcoin: Indecision - Market Analysis for Apr 5th, 2026

Bitcoin: IndecisionOne simple heuristic in Elliott Wave Analysis is to look at whether price is developing 5 wave structures in a particular direction or whether all moves in both directions are 3 wave moves. The market characteristics since the February low struck on 2/6 around $60k, fit the latter pattern: ie, 3 wave moves in both directions. This aligns with a market that lacks conviction to find clear momentum in a particular direction and is very typical of consolidations.

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