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Tuesday, December 6, 2022-- Mptrader Pre-Market Update: Macro Musings...Friday was a peculiar session in the equity (ES) AND bond (TLT) markets because they reacted positively to what was perceived as "too strong" economic data to be considered good news that might entice the Fed to adopt a "kindlier and gentler" policy posture at its upcoming decision on December 14. Then yesterday, those very same markets retraced all of Friday's up moves, as if the post-Jobs Report reaction was an error! And then there is Crude Oil, which initially climbed from 80 to 82.70 (+3.
With the minimum numbers of waves in place for GDX and GLD to have 5 waves off the recent lows, of course our next focus is going to be the pullback. So, have we topped?Well, clearly, I can count 5 waves up already. But, of course, if the market chooses to extend a bit higher, then I am not going to complain. You see, we have only hit the minimum targets for a 5-wave structure. Yet metals are known for their extensions. So, it clearly would not surprise me if they try to see one more push higher.
Today the markets moved sideways and for the most part, very little has changed from what has been laid out yesterday and this morning. As we have been noting the move down yesterday has given us the initial confirmation that we have indeed topped in the larger wave (1) shown in yellow or (a) shown in green. This is thus likely putting us in the midst of a larger corrective wave (2) or (b) that should still take us lower over the course of the next several weeks before finding a larger degree bottom.
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