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April Crude Oil needs to close under $73/bbl to trigger an initial technical "warning" that the Dec 2025-present advance from $54.63 to $77.50 is exhausted. In the absence of a close under $73.00, April Crude points next to $79-$82, indicating that a wider war premium is being built into the price of oil for nearest delivery... Last is $77.30...
I am not sure how many times it will take before a test of the 6720SPX support finally breaks it, but we had yet another today. And, thus far, the market has held yet again. Moreover, the rally off that low is initially taking shape as a 5-wave structure, which again forces me to place the yellow (b) wave at today’s low, with a reasonable expectation of a (c) wave rally again.
After finding a bottom yesterday and moving higher into the close, we saw the market pull back in a corrective fashion overnight, only to push higher again today. We are now closing in on a key resistance level just overhead, which should help provide further guidance as to whether this market has enough momentum to make a direct push back toward the all-time highs, or whether we still need to see additional downside price action in the days and weeks ahead.
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