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Mike Paulenoff

Plunge In July Crude Oil

Tue Jun 6th 2023
July Crude Oil-- Let's see if the Saudi's Oil Ministry can wipe the egg off of their face after yesterday's failed attempt to goose Oil prices above $75.00. In the interim, July Oil plunged $5/bbl to 70.13 this AM, prior to staging a recovery bounce to 71.90 as we speak.From a pattern perspective, I am still viewing all of the action off of the March and May lows at 64.42 and at 63.70 as a major Double Bottom that has since been reinforced by the 5/31 and 6/06 lows at 67.03 and at 70.13, all of which argues for upward pressure toward another confrontation with resistance at 74-75.

Has The Market Put In A Local Top?

Mon Jun 5th 2023
After trading flat most of the session we saw the market turn down as we approached the final hour of trading giving us an early signal that we may have put in at least a local top.We are still trading over upper support at the moment however and that support will need to break to give us further confirmation of a top.With that being said given the oversold nature of the technical indicators on the 60min chart along with a fairly deep drop in the Russell 2000 caution is certainly warranted in this region.

Is iii Done?

Tue Jun 6th 2023
As the SPX meanders, I have to note that we still have not struck the ideal target for wave iii within an ending diagonal, which is the 1.236 extension of waves i and ii. In our case, that is the bottom of the blue box just overhead on the 5-minute chart. So, I am going to keep this update rather simple. As long as we remain over today’s low, I am going to leave the door open for another push higher to strike that target box overhead.

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