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GLD Update: Yesterday, we discussed the Price-Momentum confirmation of weakness at 292.48 that indicated lower-lows were likely into my next lower target window from 289 to 285. Fast-forward to this AM, GLD has pressed to a lower low at 287.91 that was NOT CONFIRMED by my 4-Hour Momentum reading at 8 AM ET. Off of the 287.91 low, GLD has recovered to 294.20 so far, which is our first indication that the correction from the 4/22/25 high at 322.42 is showing signs of exhaustion at 287.91.That said, based on my nearest-term pattern work, GLD needs to climb and sustain above 295.60 to trigger a preliminary upside reversal signal... Last is 294.20...
I am sorry to say, but this correction in the metals complex just got more complex. Let’s start with GDX, which is showing us a rather complex pattern right now.With GDX dropping in a more direct fashion, it opens the door to two potential paths, ultimately taking us much lower in the coming weeks. If you would look at the attached 8-minute GDX chart, you will see that we have broken down below the last pullback low with 3 waves so far.
Overnight, the market broke the upper support level that I had discussed yesterday, but managed to hold the smaller degree support level just below and continued to push higher today. So from an analysis perspective, not too much has changed today, as the count still remains relatively full and quite extended from a Fibonacci perspective. While I do still remain cautious in this region, until we see an actual break of support and/or a clear five-wave move to the downside, we simply do not have any confirmation that even a local top has been struck just yet.
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