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Mike Paulenoff

Chinese Stocks Plunge, Oil Lower

Tue Oct 8th 2024
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! October 8, 2024-- Pre-Market Update: Connecting the overnight dots...  Last night's price action was about China's weakness and important technical setups in Crude Oil (resistance thwarting an upside breakout) and in the Equity Index futures (support holding in ES)...China's NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission-- a macroeconomic management agency under the CCP) held a "disappointing press conference" during our overnight session. The NDRC commissioner failed to put meat on the bones of the supposedly forthcoming massive China stimulus plan, which provided a nifty excuse for a nasty decline of 8%-9% in China stocks.

Market meandering so far

Thu Oct 3rd 2024
The market stayed in negative territory for the entire session today, but otherwise continues to hold above yesterday's low. Therefore, not exactly the strongest or most convincing start if price does intend to still follow through as something bullish off yesterday's low. However, as long as yesterday's low continues to hold, this is clearly still only 3 waves down from the September high so far.While I would interpret a corrective pullback off last week's high as wave (iv) of a larger impulse off the September low, Avi has an even more bullish option of a wave 2.

Setting Up For Higher

Tue Oct 8th 2024
With the market providing the pullback we wanted to see for a wave ii yesterday, it actually dipped below the .764 retracement in the cash index, with it seeing an almost 100% retracement in the futures.  However, wave ii has technically held, and we have a 5 wave rally off that low today, which I am counting as wave [i] of iii of [1].  As long as the SPX remains below the 5760SPX level, then I am going to expect a wave [ii] pullback.

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