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Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! December 5, 2023-- Pre-Market Update: -- ES remains perched above key two-week support at 4535-4545. Unless and until support is violated and sustained, my sense is that the bout of weakness from last Fri's high at 4607.75 is getting "tired" on the downside, and if so, then ES will pivot higher in the hours directly ahead. A climb above 4570 will be my first indication that the near-term pullback is over, and that ES is heading for a rest of 4600-4607.75. Only a break below 4535 will argue for downside continuation into a deeper correction that points to 4500 thereafter...
For those of you that read my weekend analysis, you may remember the title: “Pullback Coming Before Melt-Up Begins.”Well, the pullback we expected is here.I am going to start with the gold chart, as that is by far the cleanest chart I am tracking right now. Yet, it also has some challenges due to the large spike that was seen in the overnight session in GC which was not seen in the GLD. As you can see from the daily GLD chart, we have a clear 5 wave rally off the October low.
Today we saw the market pull back slightly but we are still trading over even the most upper support level. This inability to break down under support still leaves us without confirmation that we have indeed put in a top thus still leaving the door open to seeing yet another higher high before a top is struck.Now I do want to note that from a very micro perspective, the case can be made that we have five down off of the highs.
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