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Mike Paulenoff

Where Has All The Volatility Gone?

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  November 28, 2023-- Pre-Market Update: Where has all the volatility gone?  My attached 15-minute ES Chart shows that since the explosive vertical upmove in reaction to cooler-than-expected CPI data on 11/145, the index has carved out two multi-day sideways rangebound periods right into this morning's price action. From the low side of the first range at 4500 to the high of the second range at 4580.50, ES has climbed 1.8%, but if a trader happened not to capture the entire low to high range, then ES has traversed ranges of about 0.8 for the past two calendar weeks.

DAX and STOXX Extend Month's Gains

The DAX Performance Index traded higher today, making another new high on the month and therefore at least still extending in wave (c) of i. However, I have also added the alternative that price is instead further along in wave 5 already, finishing up wave iii of 5. Either way, price should still be approaching a local top to at least setup a corrective consolidation as red wave iv next. 16250 - 16415 is now the next fib resistance above.The EURO STOXX 50 closed higher today like the DAX, but in this case only marginally exceeded the prior high on the month.

Testing Support - Market Analysis for Nov 30th, 2023

Today, we find ourselves testing the top part of our support region on the SPX. So, we still do not have a clear indication that we have topped. Now, while we have broken below what I currently have labeled as wave iv (if the top is in), I have to note that I am questioning that potential since the rally to yesterday’s high really counts best as a 3-wave rally.

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