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Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! September 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: This day has finally arrived! Fed Time!Let's take a look at some Big Picture Set-Ups to see if we can arrive at a directional reaction to whatever the Warsh Fed does and says between 2 PM and 3:30 PM ET today:Weekly 10-Year YIELD argues for upside continuation-- not necessarily immediately-- to 5.25%-5.50% before pivoting to the downside into a major correction. If that proves to be the case, then will upside continuation from 5% to 5.
After testing the 7660–7640 support zone on the ES chart over the past several sessions, the market finally broke below that zone and moved through the lower pivot at 7611. This provides further confirmation that we are following the downside pattern.While we have not yet broken below the ultimate support level for the alternate wave (iv) count, today’s action supports the need for further downside before a lasting bottom is found. Keep in mind, however, that we are likely working on an ending diagonal down from the 8/13 high.
As I wrote earlier this week and this morning again, with the taking out of lower resistance ovenight, we have moved into no-man’s land wherein I do not believe we can view one potential as being a higher probability than the other on the 5 and 15 minute charts. Although I will add that the downside path has a greater Bayesian probability than the yellow count based upon Luke Miller’s work, I cannot say that the two Elliott Wave counts being presented here stand out on their own as one being a higher probability than the other.
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