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At the current pre-market price of 79.27, NFLX is down 41% from the ATH, as the price structure nears a significant technical inflection level in and around 75.00, which represents the Fibonacci 50% retracement-support level of the entire bull phase from the May 2022 low to the June 2025 high.Given the glaring positive Momentum divergences that have emerged during the last two weeks of trading (lower prices accompanied by higher Momentum readings), my preferred scenario argues for NFLX to pivot to the upside from the 75-80 Turn Window into a meaningful recovery rally that has its first challenge at 85.00-87.50.A CLOSE below 75.
The market made a lower low into the close, which opens the door for a potential five-wave move to the downside per the yellow count. While we still need confirmation—specifically a corrective retrace higher followed by a break of the low, the setup now allows for the possibility of a substantial move lower in wave (iii) of the larger wave C.With that in mind, the structure of the next retracement higher will be very important to monitor in the days ahead.
Even though trend trades are higher probability trade setups, we did have a nice counter trend buy setup recently in TLT with timing factors. We actually had a relatively wide timing zone between 2/3-2/7, but the first standout bars in our timing histogram came in 2/3 - 2/4. Our price support cluster came in between 86.31-86.42 which included two symmetry projections and a 1.272 price extension. The actual low was made on 2/3 at 86.43 which was within a penny of the zone. As you can see a beautiful rally followed.
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