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Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! September 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: This day has finally arrived! Fed Time!Let's take a look at some Big Picture Set-Ups to see if we can arrive at a directional reaction to whatever the Warsh Fed does and says between 2 PM and 3:30 PM ET today:Weekly 10-Year YIELD argues for upside continuation-- not necessarily immediately-- to 5.25%-5.50% before pivoting to the downside into a major correction. If that proves to be the case, then will upside continuation from 5% to 5.
As I wrote earlier this week and this morning again, with the taking out of lower resistance ovenight, we have moved into no-man’s land wherein I do not believe we can view one potential as being a higher probability than the other on the 5 and 15 minute charts. Although I will add that the downside path has a greater Bayesian probability than the yellow count based upon Luke Miller’s work, I cannot say that the two Elliott Wave counts being presented here stand out on their own as one being a higher probability than the other.
After moving higher yesterday and into the retracement zone for the blue wave b, the market moved slightly lower today after stopping at the 61.8 retracement level right on the nose. While holding and turning at an expected retracement fib is typically a good early signal that the primary count may indeed be following through, we still do not have a clear five-wave move down off of that level.We could make the case that we have five down in leading diagonal form off of the overnight high in the ES.
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