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Mike Paulenoff

Climbing Crude Price Is Elephant In The Room

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  April 29, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: --- Today is Fed Day (2 PM and 2:30 PM ET)...--- Mag7 Earnings Day (MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOG after the close)...--- But the elephant in the room this morning is the continued sharp climb in the nearby June Crude Oil price to a 3-week high at 103.82, which represents a 31.5% upmove since the April 17th pullback low at 78.97 (from the 4/07/26 high at 114.

Close, But No Cigar

With the crazy machinations we have been seeing of late in metals, I thought it appropriate to write an update a bit earlier than normal.With the market making a higher high yesterday, I could have made the argument that gold was providing us with a 1-2, i-ii upside set up.  However, the spike low today invalidated that potential.  So, it still leaves us with a potential for a 1-2, as shown in purple on the 13-minute GC chart.But, at the same time, there is also a reasonable count for 5 waves down in gold and silver.

Market Finds Support, Have We Begun The Fifth Wave Up?

Today, the market moved lower right into the upper end of the support zone that we laid out for the potential green wave (iv) and has moved up sharply off of that low. This is leaving the door open for a local bottom to have been found as part of the larger Ending Diagonal wave structure that has been laid out per the green count. With that being said, we still have some key resistance levels overhead that will need to break before we have confirmation that we are indeed heading to new highs.

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