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Emotions vs. The Big Picture Technical Indicator ConditionsWith each passing hour and headline, the stock indices react instantaneously to the prospect of EITHER purported total destruction of the Iranian nation-state OR something much less devastating that presumably paves a conciliatory path forward. No one knows what to expect during the 9-1/2 hours until the deadline time. Extremes: Total annihilation vs Ceasefire/Surrender? Will either or both extremes open the Strait of Hormuz? The Gray Area: Everything in-between the extremes...Technically, however, my Big Picture Condition Indicators are saying, "don't worry, look for a positive outcome" (whatever that looks like)!...
Bitcoin: IndecisionOne simple heuristic in Elliott Wave Analysis is to look at whether price is developing 5 wave structures in a particular direction or whether all moves in both directions are 3 wave moves. The market characteristics since the February low struck on 2/6 around $60k, fit the latter pattern: ie, 3 wave moves in both directions. This aligns with a market that lacks conviction to find clear momentum in a particular direction and is very typical of consolidations.
Today we saw the market open slightly higher and consolidate in a very tight range all day, just under the key pivot that, once broken, would confirm we are indeed in wave c of the larger (b) up. As of right now, we still do not have confirmation that we have indeed begun that c wave up, and we still could see a deeper retrace before that move occurs. For now, we will remain in a bit of a wait-and-see approach as we continue to hold below the key pivot.
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