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Mike Paulenoff

After CPI and PPI, Next Up is Retail Sales

Mptrader Out Front: Friday May 14th, 2021 At 8:30 AM ET, we get the latest official data on Retail Sales for April. The Street is expecting Retail Sales to show a 1% after March's outlier climb of 9.8%. Ex-autos, The Street expects +0.7% vs. +8.4%, and for the Year-Over-Year comparison, well, the expectation is that the April 2021 figures for Retail Sales will be 30.5% higher than the pandemic month of April 2020... As for the Retail Sector of the market, my attached chart of the XRT (SPDR SP Retail ETF) shows gargantuan 277% climbfrom the March 2020 low at 26.29 to the Jan. 28, 2021 high of 99.24.

Nothing Fits Well Right Now

As I said on my live video this morning, when I do analysis, I not only search for what may be the most probable wave count in the smaller degree structure I am analyzing, I also have to make sure how it fits in the next higher wave degree. Right now, I do not have anything that is fitting on two waves degrees.

Spotting The SPX Low

When Fibonacci timing cycles and price levels coincide, profitable trade opportunities can often result. This week, we spotted Fibonacci timing cycles that anticipated a possible low on 5/11-13. We also spotted key price support on the daily charts that included symmetry and a .618 retracement on the SPX. The result: So far we've seen a rally of 106 SPX points.  If we clear the 4166-4168 area, the rally can continue to push higher.

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