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Mike Paulenoff

How Much Tolerance Does The Fed Have For Rising Long Rates?

Mptrader Out Front: Wednesday February 17th, 2021 Scroll down to the latest Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) readings, and notice how many markets are registering Overbought Conditions, accompanied by a very Oversold reading in the Bond Market! On the surface, there is a lot of "optimism" in the equity and some of the commodity markets, juxtaposed against "increasing fear" in the bond market (longer term rates backing up), and in the "Fear Index" itself, the VIX.

Ruble may get stronger before a huge rally

Russian RubleUSDRUB: the counts added yesterday and commented in the Live Video is my new primary now - it suggests a high in the wave (b) is in place and the pair is working on the wave iii of (c) of the circle ii down (possible target for decline is 69.72 region).The Alternate count (former primary) still suggests extension to 78.40 - but below 75 support region it becomes unlikely.EURRUB: break below 90 support region would make the case for a local high - and the pair could start a larger degine to wards 84-85 area. Over 90.

News Fits The Cycles

I cannot stress this enough, but people still question the efficacy of this proposition. I can no longer count how many times the market is set up to pullback or start an imminent rally, and we have a news event announced which catalyzes the move. So, to reiterate, I do not view this drop as being “caused” by the news, as the market was already topping out in a 5-wave structure off yesterday’s low. Rather, the news catalyzed a pullback that was to be expected.

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