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Typically, Rising Wedge formations END with a thrust out of the top of the Wedge, but fail to follow through on the upside, and instead reverse sharply to the downside, leaving behind a major Bull Trap Reversal that inaugurates a meaningful percentage correction of the most recent upleg, in this case from the 11/21/25 pivot low at 650.85 to the forthcoming new ATH, let's say at 700 to 703 (See my attached Daily Chart).The above-mentioned "traditional Rising Wedge" upside exhaustion scenario did not unfold last Thursday evening after Amazon's disappointing Earnings report.
Today the market opened higher and reached the upper end of the key retracement zone from the decline off the February 2nd high. However, that level was quickly rejected, and we saw a sharp move lower that can be counted as a five-wave impulsive decline.Since today's low of the day was struck earlier this morning, the price has bounced higher, but that move so far counts best as being corrective in nature. That suggests the market likely has more work to do to the downside before we can begin looking for even a local bottom.
While both gold and GDX have seen very nice corrective bounces thus far, with GDX approaching the .764 retracement of its initial decline and gold approaching the .618 retracement of the same, silver has only mustered a move to the .382 retracement region. The question on my and everyone else’s mind is how do we read this? If I were looking at gold and GDX in a vacuum, I would be shorting the crap out of those two charts.
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