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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! July 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: -- In the past 24 hours, two technology powerhouses, ASML and TSM, reported much better-than-expected Earnings, but in BOTH CASES, investors have pummeled their respective stocks (coming days after the debacle in IBM). Although the indices have not violated major support so far, this behavior under the hood makes me "technically nervous" that the dominant uptrend patterns are weakening within a developing sell-the-great Earnings-news" set-up in an increasingly frothy market.
Five Trades. One Week. No Fluff.Here’s exactly what went down in the ES room this week:Jul 14 — Long #1: +25% return on riskJul 14 — Long #2: +25% return on riskJul 16 — Long: +120% return on riskJul 17 — Long #1: +142% return on riskJul 17 — Long #2: +25% return on riskThe ES is down –1.2% on the week. We don’t care. Direction isn’t the edge—structure is.Expected Value Win RateMost traders fixate on win rate. We fixate on Expected Value (EV).EV is what keeps you solvent long-term.
In Case You Missed It…The major equity indexes are still out of sync with each other. This makes it harder to establish a broad trend. Trading volumes remain slightly below average. SPX lost approximately 117 points this week and for now indexes remain in their sideways ranges, though NDX came close to breaking below that range on Friday and failed.Leo Valencia, our resident options expert and host of The Gamma Optimizer service, updated the Flagship Service on the Gamma Threshold level on Monday, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10301568. The GT level currently sits at approximately 7525 SPX.
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