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Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! September 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: This day has finally arrived! Fed Time!Let's take a look at some Big Picture Set-Ups to see if we can arrive at a directional reaction to whatever the Warsh Fed does and says between 2 PM and 3:30 PM ET today:Weekly 10-Year YIELD argues for upside continuation-- not necessarily immediately-- to 5.25%-5.50% before pivoting to the downside into a major correction. If that proves to be the case, then will upside continuation from 5% to 5.
The instinct to look higher this morning was the correct one, but even I underestimated the strength of today's move over the regular trading hours session. Price is now above the .764 retrace as the last fib retracement measured from the decline off of the August high, and within a stone's throw of a new all-time high.Therefore, the probability of this rally off of last week's low being a corrective b-wave still has diminished further, and continues to drop off the closer price comes to a retest of the August high.
While this update is based upon the GDX, it can equally apply to the metals themselves as well, and I will update that tomorrow.But, focusing on the GDX right now, the market has now moved up over the wave (i) high. And, in order for it to really get my bullish juices going, we would now need to follow through over 101.83 to invalidate the potential for the yellow count. But, until that happens, the yellow count is still alive and must be respected and tracked.
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