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Typically, Rising Wedge formations END with a thrust out of the top of the Wedge, but fail to follow through on the upside, and instead reverse sharply to the downside, leaving behind a major Bull Trap Reversal that inaugurates a meaningful percentage correction of the most recent upleg, in this case from the 11/21/25 pivot low at 650.85 to the forthcoming new ATH, let's say at 700 to 703 (See my attached Daily Chart).The above-mentioned "traditional Rising Wedge" upside exhaustion scenario did not unfold last Thursday evening after Amazon's disappointing Earnings report.
Bitcoin: 2026 RoadmapThe action this past week fulfilled the most recent article's title in strong form. The 2/1 update was entitled Breakdown! and price did just that, falling nearly 25% from the 2/1 opening print to the Thursday night low.While this article will primarily discuss the larger degree ramifications of this recent move, let's get the micro count out of the way first:My primary count favors a low in place with a break above lower resistance for immediately lower levels.
With the market completing what seems to be a reasonable 5-wave rally off last week’s low, I think it is now reasonable to expect a pullback. And, normally, we seek a retracement in the .500-.618 region of the prior rally.As you can see, I have added a support box between the .500-.764 retracement of what I have labeled as wave 1, which is basically the 6828-6883SPX region. For now, micro support is in the 6945-50SPX region. Once that breaks, it should provide us with an initial indication that wave 2 is in progress.
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